Duration of Measurements and Long‐Term Wave Statistics
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 109, Issue 2
Abstract
Small sample size and high sample variability go hand in hand in statistical analyses. In this study, the uncertainties in extrapolations of wave heights from small‐size samples to large return‐intervals are investigated and results are obtained for cases where wave statistics are expressed by the Weibull distribution. A nondimensional error for prediction of rare events corresponding to any required confidence level is derived as a function of the number of years of observations, frequency of observations and wave climatological characteristics. It follows that the number of years of wave measurement necessary to determine an extreme event of high return‐interval within a certain confidence level and accuracy can be established. The study shows that shortterm wave measurements of a few years are not sufficient for engineering accuracy, and can be used only to verify or complement wave height estimation given by other methods such as hindcasting. Wave measurement programs have to be conceived as a long‐term investment and commitment for future generations.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Borgman, L. E., “Risk Criteria,” Journal of the Waterways and Harbor Division, ASCE, No. WW3, 1963, pp. 1–35.
2.
Cramer, H., Mathematical Method of Statistics, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1945.
3.
Dolan, R., and Hayden, R., “Templates of Changes—Storms and Shoreline Hazards,” Oceanus, Vol. 23, No. 4, 1980–1981, pp. 32–37.
4.
Earle, M. D., and Baer, L., “Effects of Measurement of Hindcast Uncertainties on Estimation of Extreme Wave Heights,” Journal of the Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Division, Vol. 108, No. WW4, Nov., 1982, pp. 456–478.
5.
Goda, Y., “Note on the Presentation and Utilization of Wave Observation Data,” Report of the Port and Harbor Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan, 39, 1967, pp. 237–255.
6.
Gumbel, E. J., “Return Period of Flood Flows,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 12, No. 2, 1941.
7.
Gumbel, E. J., and Carlson, P. G., “Extreme Values in Aeronautics,” Journal of Aeronautical Sciences, Vol. 21, No. 6, 1954, pp. 389–398.
8.
Harris, D. L., “Characteristics of Wave Records in the Coastal Zone,” Advanced Seminar on Waves and Beaches, Academic Press, New York, N.Y., 1972.
9.
Isaacson, M. de St. Q., and MacKenzie, N. G., “Long‐Term Distributions of Ocean Waves: A Review,” Journal of the Waterways, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Division, ASCE, Vol. 107, No. WW2, 1981, pp. 93–109.
10.
Lawson, N. V., and Abernathy, C. L., “Long‐Term Wave Statistics Off Botany Bay,” Proceedings, 2nd Australian Conference on Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Sydney, Australia, 1975, pp. 167–176.
11.
Nordenstrom, N., “A Method to Predict Long‐Term Distribution of Waves and Wave‐Induced Motions and Loads on Ships and Other Floating Structures,” Publication Number 81, Det Norske Veritas, Oslo, Norway, 1973.
12.
Petrauskas, C., and Aagaard, P. M., Extrapolation of Historical Storm Data for Estimating Design Wave Heights,” Journal of Society of Petroleum Engineers, Vol. 2, 1971, pp. 25–35.
13.
Sonu, C., “Computer Prediction of Nearshore and Surf Zone Statistics,” Tetra Tech Report TC‐394, Pasadena, Calif., 1975.
14.
Takahashi, K., “Weather Statistics,” Meteorology Agency, Chyin Stoken Publishers, Tokyo, Japan, 1959.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1983 ASCE.
History
Published online: May 1, 1983
Published in print: May 1983
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.