Risk-Based TMDLs in Pathogen-Impaired Waters
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 135, Issue 6
Abstract
A risk-management approach is proposed for estimating total maximum daily load (TMDL) load reductions in pathogen-impaired streams. The approach is based on reducing the observed -percentile concentration to the -percentile water-quality standard with a -percentile level of confidence. The required reduction is determined using an explicit policy decision of acceptable risk. A review of the methodologies currently being used to determine TMDL load reductions in eight southeastern states shows a lack of uniformity in TMDL methodology and the use of either unknown implicit or arbitrary explicit margins of safety. Application of the proposed approach to these cases demonstrates that the confidence of compliance of the adopted TMDL load reductions are mostly less than 50%. This indicates that the adopted TMDL load reductions would likely result in not meeting applicable water-quality standards.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The writer acknowledges the in-depth reviews and constructive comments provided by the three anonymous reviewers that resulted in a quantum improvement of this paper.
Reference
Alabama Department of Environmental Management. (2006). Final total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Hurricane Creek, Water Quality Branch, Water Division, Montgomery, Ala.
Borsuk, M., Stow, C., and Reckhow, K. (2002). “Predicting the frequency of water quality standard violations: A probabilistic approach for TMDL development.” Environ. Sci. Technol., 36(10), 2109–2115.
Box, G., and Cox, D. (1964). “An analysis of transformations.” J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B (Methodol.), 26, 211–246.
Bury, K. (1999). Statistical distributions in engineering, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Cleland, B. (2002). TMDL development from the bottom up part II: Using duration curves to connect the pieces, America’s Clean Water Foundation, Washington, D.C.
Cleland, B. (2003). TMDL development from the bottom up part III: Duration curves and wet-weather assessments, America’s Clean Water Foundation, Washington, D.C.
Dilks, D., and Freedman, P. (2004). “Improved consideration of the margin of safety in total maximum daily load development.” J. Environ. Eng., 130(6), 690–694.
Eadie, W., Drijard, D., James, F., Roos, M., and Sadoulet, B. (1971). Statistical methods in experimental physics, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Georgia Department of Natural Resources. (2007). Total maximum daily load evaluation for seventy-two stream segments in the Oconee River Basin for fecal coliform, Environmental Protection Division, Atlanta.
Gibbons, R. (2003). “A statistical approach for performing water quality impairment assessments.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 39(4), 841–849.
Haas, C., and Heller, B. (1988). “Test of the validity of the Poisson assumption for analysis of most-probable-number results.” Appl. Environ. Microbiol., 54(12), 2996–3002.
Hahn, G., and Meeker, W. (1991). Statistical intervals: A guide for practitioners, Wiley, New York.
Hellweger, F. and Masopust, P. (2008). “Investigating the fate and transport of Escherichia Coli in the Charles River, Boston, using high-resolution observation and modeling.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 44(2), 509–522.
Houck, O. (2002). The clean water act TMDL program: Law, policy, and implementation, 2nd Ed., Environmental Law Institute, Washington, D.C.
Kentucky Department for Environmental Protection. (2007). Final total maximum daily load (TMDL) for fecal coliform in Bayou de Chien, Central Creek, and Cooley Creek, Div. of Water, Frankfort, Ky.
Lassiter, A. (2007). Fecal coliform TMDL for Wahneta Farms drain canal, (WBID 1580), Florida Dept. of Environmental Protection, Tallahassee, Fla.
Lilliefors, H. (1967). “On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown.” J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 62, 399–402.
McBride, G., and Ellis, J. (2001). “Confidence of compliance: A Bayesian approach for percentile standards.” Water Res., 35(5), 1117–1124.
Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality. (2006). Fecal coliform TMDL for Tal-labinnela Creek, Tombigbee River Basin, Office of Pollution Control, TMDL/WLA Branch, Jackson, Miss.
National Research Council. (2001). Assessing the TMDL approach to water-quality management, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
North Carolina Department of Environmental and Natural Resources. (2006). Total maximum daily load for fecal coliform for Salem Creek and turbidity for Grants Creek in North Carolina, Div. of Water Quality, Water Quality Section Planning Branch, Raleigh, N.C.
Novotny, V. (2004). “Simplified databased total maximum daily loads, or the world is log-normal.” J. Environ. Eng., 130(6), 674–683.
Shapiro, S. and Wilk, M. (1965). “An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples).” Biometrika, 52(3 and 4), 591–611.
Smith, E., Ye, K., Hughes, C., and Shabman, L. (2001). “Statistical assessment of violations of water quality standards under Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act.” Environ. Sci. Technol., 35, 606–612.
Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation. (2007). Total maximum daily load (TMDL) for E. Coli in the Wolf River Watershed (HUC 08010210) Fayette, Hardeman, and Shelby Counties, Tennessee, Div. of Water Pollution Control, Nashville, Tenn.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (1983). “Results of the nationwide urban runoff program.” Final Rep. No. 832R83112, Vol. I, Water Planning Div., Washington, D.C.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2007). “An approach for using load duration curves in the development of TMDLs.” Rep. No. EPA 841-B-07-006, Office of Wetlands, Oceans and Watersheds, Washington, D.C.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2008). “Causes of impairment for 303(d) listed waters.” ⟨www.iaspub.epa.gov/watersl0/attains_nation_cy.control?p _report_type=T#causes_303d⟩ (Sept. 17, 2008).
Visual Numerics, Inc. (2009). IMSL Fortran library users guide stat/library, Vol. 2, Visual Numerics, San Ramon, Calif.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 135 • Issue 6 • November 2009
Pages: 521 - 527
Copyright
© 2009 ASCE.
History
Received: Mar 4, 2008
Accepted: Apr 21, 2009
Published online: Oct 15, 2009
Published in print: Nov 2009
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.