Hydrologic and Economic Implications of Climate Change for Typical River Basins of the Agricultural Midwestern United States
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 134, Issue 3
Abstract
The Midwest is the largest agricultural area of the United States. Historically, the climate there has been suitable for unirrigated farming. However, the specter of climate change has created concerns about the future of Midwestern agriculture, regional fresh water resources and the relationship between the two. Implications of climate change for the agricultural Midwest are revealed in a recent study on two typical agricultural Midwestern watersheds, the Mackinaw River Basin and the upper Sangamon River Basin of central Illinois. Generally in this study a future climate with more frequent droughts is envisioned based on the outcome of one of the major general circulation models, the Canadian Climate Centre model. The climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, low flow frequencies of streams, and the profitability of irrigation, which could be triggered by the climate change, are evaluated. This study shows that the changes in climatic factors of temperature and precipitation tend to reduce crop yields, induce irrigation, and increase low flow frequencies. However, such adverse effects may well be counteracted by the effects of elevated concentration in atmosphere. Thus, the opposing effects of climate change could very well leave agriculture in central Illinois more or less unchanged.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The writers gratefully acknowledge support by the USEPA Star program under Award No. UNSPECIFIEDEPA R827451-01. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the USEPA Star program. The writers gratefully acknowledge help by Dr. Jeff Arnold, Dr. Susan Neitsch, and Ms. Nancy Sammons.
References
Bowman, J. A., and Collins, M. A. (1987). “Impacts of irrigation and drought on Illinois water resources.” Illinois State water survey, Champaign, Ill.
Broner, I. (2006). “Center-pivot irrigation systems.” Colorado State University Extension, http://www.ext.colostate.edu/pubs/crops/04704.html (Sep. 2006).
Brown, R. A., and Rosenberg, N. J. (1997). “Sensitivity of crop yield and water use to change in a range of climatic factors and concentrations: A simulation study applying EPIC to the central USA.” Agric. Forest Meteorol., 83(3-4), 171–203.
Brown, R. A., and Rosenberg, N. J. (1999). “Climate change impacts on the potential productivity of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing regions.” Clim. Change, 41(1), 73–107.
Brumbelow, K., and Georgakakos, A. (2001). “An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes.” J. Geophys. Res., [Atmos.], 106(D21), 27383–27405.
Hoeft, R. G., and Nafziger, E. D. (2003). “Chapter 3 soybeans, 2003-2004 Illinois agronomy handbook.” http://www.ag.uiuc.edu/iah (Jun. 2003).
Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A. (2001). Climate change 2001: The scientific basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Idos, K. E., and Idso, S. B. (1994). “Plant-responses to atmospheric enrichment in the face of environmental constraints—A review of the past 10 years research.” Agric. Forest Meteorol., 69(3-4), 153–203.
Izaurralde, R. C., Rosenberg, N. J., Brown, R. A., and Thomson, A. M. (2003). “Integrated assessment of Hadley Center (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States. II: Regional agricultural production in 2030 and 2095.” Agric. Forest Meteorol., 117(1-2), 97–122.
Leaky, A. D. B., Uribelarrea, M., Ainsworth, E A., Naidu, S. L., Rogers, A., Ort, D. R., and Long, S. P. (2006). “Photosynthesis, productivity, and yield of maize are not affected by open-air elevation of concentration in the absence of drought.” Plant Physiol., 140(2), 779–790.
Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. B. D., Nösberger, J., and Ort, D. R. (2006). “Food for thought: Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising concentrations.” Science, 312(5782), 1918–1921.
National Assessment Synthesis Team (NAST). (2000). Climate change impacts on the United States—Overview report, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO). (1998). “ concentration in the atmosphere: Mauna Loa curve.” University of California, http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/06.htm (Jun. 2003).
Singh, K. P., Ramamurthy, G. S., and Seo, I. W. (1988). “7-Day 10-Year low flows of streams in the Kankakee, Sangamon, Embarras, Little Wabash, and southern Regions.” Illinois State water survey, Champaign, Ill.
Southworth, J., Pfeifer, R. A., Habeck, M., Randolph, J. C., Doering, O. C., Johnston, J. J., and Rao, D. G. (2002). “Changes in soybean yields in the midwestern United States as a result of future changes in climate, climate variability, and fertilization.” Clim. Change, 53(4), 447–475.
Southworth, J., Randolph, J. C., Habeck, M., Doering, O. C., Pfeifer, R. A., Rao, D. G., and Johnston, J. J. (2000). “Consequences of future climate change and changing climate variability on maize yields in the Midwestern United States.” Agric., Ecosyst. Environ., 82(1-3), 139–158.
Stockle, C. O., Williams, J. R., Rosenberg, N. J., and Jones, C. A. (1992). “A method for estimating the direct and climatic effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on growth and yield of crops. 1: Modification of the EPIC model for climate change analysis.” Agric., Ecosyst. Environ., 38(3), 225–238.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Nov 12, 2004
Accepted: Jan 16, 2007
Published online: May 1, 2008
Published in print: May 2008
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.