Water Management Applications of Climate-Based Hydrologic Forecasts: Case Study of the Truckee-Carson River Basin
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 133, Issue 4
Abstract
Water managers in the western United States and throughout the world are facing the increasing challenge of supplying a variety of water demands under the growing stresses of climate variability and of population and economic growth. Accurate streamflow forecasts are key to the water resources planning and decision-making process. There is growing evidence that variability in western streamflow is modulated by large-scale ocean-atmospheric features. Traditional forecasting techniques, however, do not systematically utilize large-scale climate information. In this study we present a framework for incorporating climate information into water resources decision-making and demonstrate the method on the semiarid Truckee-Carson Basin in Nevada where environmental, agricultural, and municipal demands compete for a limited supply of water. In this basin, water managers must plan carefully to meet the demands of timing and required flowrates. The framework presented in this paper consists of a streamflow forecast system that is based on large-scale climate information. The forecasts are then incorporated in a decision-support tool to aid in water resources planning and decision making. Previous work on the Truckee-Carson Basin has demonstrated that incorporating climate information into the forecast can increase the accuracy (or skill) and lead time of forecasts. This paper focuses on the decision-support system that is used to evaluate decision strategies and demonstrates possible water management improvements. The performance of the framework and the improved forecasts are evaluated on the Truckee-Carson system by using a suite of years from the historical record.
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Acknowledgments
The writers thank the Bureau of Reclamation Lahontan Basin area office for funding this study. Funding through the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Studies (CIRES) Innovative Research Program at the University of Colorado at Boulder is also thankfully acknowledged. Useful discussions with Tom Scott, Gregg Reynolds, and Jeff Rieker are very much appreciated. Finally, the writers thank the two anonymous reviewers and the associate editor for their comments and suggestions for improving the manuscript.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 133 • Issue 4 • July 2007
Pages: 339 - 350
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Aug 2, 2005
Accepted: Apr 19, 2006
Published online: Jul 1, 2007
Published in print: Jul 2007
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