Threat Assessment of Water Supply Systems Using Markov Latent Effects Modeling
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 131, Issue 3
Abstract
Recent amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act emphasize efforts toward safeguarding our nation’s water supplies against attack and contamination. Specifically, the Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 established requirements for each community water system serving more than 3,300 people to conduct an assessment of the vulnerability of its system to a terrorist attack or other intentional acts. Integral to evaluating system vulnerability is the threat assessment, which is the process by which the credibility of a threat is quantified. Unfortunately, full probabilistic assessment is generally not feasible, since there is insufficient experience and∕or data to quantify the associated probabilities. For this reason, an alternative approach is proposed predicated on Markov latent effects (MLE) modeling, which provides a framework for quantifying imprecise subjective metrics through possibilistic or fuzzy mathematics. Here, the MLE approach is introduced and demonstrated within the context of water supply system threat assessment.
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Acknowledgments
The authors extend their appreciation to Sariah Jurado and Roger Bilisoly for assistance in developing early versions of the MLE model and to Troy Grossarth for assistance with developing the MLE modeling interface. The authors also acknowledge the insightful comments provided by two anonymous reviewers. Funding for this project was provided by Sandia National Laboratories, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 131 • Issue 3 • May 2005
Pages: 218 - 227
Copyright
© 2005 ASCE.
History
Received: Sep 2, 2004
Accepted: Dec 23, 2004
Published online: May 1, 2005
Published in print: May 2005
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