Coping with Uncertainty: A Case Study in Sediment Transport and Nutrient Load Analysis
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 129, Issue 4
Abstract
We present a computational approach for identifying the significance of uncertainty in assessing the consequences of sediment and nutrient transport in a section of the Chattahoochee River south of Lake Lanier, as it passes through Atlanta, Georgia. Specifically, our analysis aims at identifying the key control and management actions, and the key scientific uncertainties about the fluvial system, that govern the attainment of a set of water quality objectives for the downstream boundary of the study area. To this end, we present a computational framework that integrates a recently developed sediment-nutrient dynamics model with a Monte Carlo-based methodology for model uncertainty evaluation. Our results suggest that, in general, reliable execution of controls and management actions is more crucial to meeting the target values for flow, sediment, and phosphorus concentration, than the scientific uncertainties associated with fluvial processes within the river channel. We also discuss the potential utility of our framework for accommodating the various science- and policy-derived uncertainties in the total maximum daily load process.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 129 • Issue 4 • July 2003
Pages: 345 - 355
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 1, 2002
Accepted: Nov 14, 2002
Published online: Jun 13, 2003
Published in print: Jul 2003
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