Impact of Spring 2000 Drought Forecasts on Midwestern Water Management

In March 2000, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued forecasts of spring and summer droughts for five Midwestern states. Summer brought heavy rains across the Midwest, ending the drought and revealing the forecast’s failure. The uses of forecasts and the resulting impacts were assessed by interviewing 45 state agency water managers in the drought region plus managers of 31 community water systems facing serious shortages. All state water managers had received the forecasts and most believed the forecast was accurate. As a result of the forecast, 70% of them initiated various activities, primarily by warning managers of water short communities and initiating meetings of state drought response groups. Many managers of water-short local systems reported that the forecast led them to impose water use restrictions or to seek new sources of water. Most state water officials and local managers felt the forecast-based actions were beneficial and created few problems. State climatologists handled many complaints, primarily from agricultural interests who claimed large losses resulting from use of the forecast. The forecast failure led to a loss of credibility over future use of climate forecasts by water managers. Long-range weather forecasts issued without expressing levels of uncertainty are misleading.