Event Tree Analysis of Lock Closure Risks
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 123, Issue 3
Abstract
The use of event trees and subjective probabilities in risk analysis is illustrated via a case study: the estimation of the probability of closure of Poe Lock on St. Marys River (Sault Ste. Marie, Mich.) because of vessel accidents and other nonstructural failures. The risk of closure is needed to determine the benefits of building a second Poe-class lock at that location. An event tree structures the risk analysis. Probabilities associated with the branches of the tree were developed from a combination of historical data and subjective probabilities. The latter were obtained in workshops with navigation experts. This paper summarizes the risk analysis, and discusses the difficulties associated with obtaining the necessary probabilities. It was found that a 30-day closure could occur about once every 50 years. The results are most sensitive to assumptions concerning how often ships hit lock gates.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 123 • Issue 3 • May 1997
Pages: 169 - 178
Copyright
Copyright © 1997 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: May 1, 1997
Published in print: May 1997
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