Key Sources of Uncertainty in QUAL2E Model of Passaic River
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 122, Issue 2
Abstract
Application of stream water-quality models in decision making has been hampered by a lack of data appropriate for minimization of model-simulation uncertainty. A method for determining data needed to reduce model-prediction uncertainty is illustrated in this paper. First-order reliability analysis is applied to determine (1) the model parameters that significantly affect model-prediction uncertainty; and (2) the constituents for which model-prediction uncertainty is unacceptable. Additional data are required to reduce uncertainty in the parameters that significantly affect constituents with high prediction uncertainty and consequently in model prediction. The method is demonstrated for multiconstituent water-quality modeling on the Passaic River in New Jersey applying QUAL2E. The model-prediction uncertainty of dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, ammonia, and chlorphyll a is considered. For this example, only the reaeration rate and the algal maximum-specific-growth rate contribute significant uncertainty to model prediction. The effect of reducing the uncertainty in the reaeration rate and algal maximum-specific-growth rate on the uncertainty on predicted dissolved oxygen and chlorphyll a, respectively, is demonstrated.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Beck, M. B.(1987). “Water quality modeling: A review of the analysis of uncertainty.”Water Resour. Res., 23(5), 1393–1441.
2.
Bennett, J. P., and Rathbun, R. E. (1972). “Reaeration in open channel flow.”U.S. Geological Survey Profl. Paper 737, U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, D.C.
3.
Bowie, G. L., et al. (1985). “Rates, constants, and kinetic formulation in surface water quality modeling.”Rep. EPA/600/3-85/040, U.S. Envir. Protection Agency, Athens, Ga.
4.
Brown, L. C., and Barnwell, T. O., Jr. (1987). “The enhanced stream water quality models QUAL2E and QUAL2E-UNCAS: Documentation and user manual.”Rep. EPA/600/3-87/007, U.S. Envir. Protection Agency, Athens, Ga.
5.
Burges, S. J., and Lettenmaier, D. P.(1975). “Probabilistic methods in stream quality management.”Water Resour. Bull., 11(1), 115–130.
6.
Chadderton, R. A., Miller, A. C., and McDonnell, A. J.(1982). “Uncertainty analysis of dissolved oxygen model.”J. Envir. Engrg. Div., ASCE, 108(5), 1003–1013.
7.
Cheng, S.-T. (1982). “Overtopping risk evaluation for an existing dam,” PhD thesis, University of Illinois, Urbana, Ill.
8.
Gardner, R. H., O'Neill, R. V., Mankin, J. B., and Carney, J. H.(1981). “A comparison of sensitivity and error analysis based on a stream ecosystem model.”Ecological Modeling, 12, 173–190.
9.
Hornberger, G. M., and Spear, R. C.(1981). “An approach to the preliminary analysis of environmental systems.”J. Envir. Mgmt., 12, 7–18.
10.
House, L. B., and Skavroneck, S. (1981). “Comparison of the propane-area tracer method and predictive equations for determination of stream-reaeration coefficients on two small streams in Wisconsin.”U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resour. Investigations Rep. 80-105, U.S. Geological Survey, Madison, Wis.
11.
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB). (1991). “Calibration and verification of upper Potomac River model volume I.”ICPRB Rep. No. 91-9, Rockville, Md.
12.
Jaffe, P. R., and Ferrara, R. A.(1984). “Modeling sediment and water column interactions for hydrophobic pollutants. Parameter discrimination and model response to input uncertainty.”Water Res., 18(9), 1169–1174.
13.
Langbein, W. D., and Durum, W. H. (1967). “The aeration capacity of streams.”U.S. Geological Survey Circular 542, U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, D.C.
14.
Law, A. M., and Kelton, W. D. (1991). Simulation modeling and analysis. McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y.
15.
McKay, M. D. (1988). “Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using a statistical sample of input values.”Uncertainty analysis, Y. Ronen, ed., CRC Press, Boca Raton, Fla., 145–186.
16.
Melching, C. S. (1992). “An improved first-order reliability approach for assessing uncertainties in hydrologic modeling.”J. Hydrol., 132, 157–177.
17.
Melching, C. S. (1995). “Reliability estimation.”Computer models of watershed hydrology, V. P. Singh, ed., Water Resources Publications, Littleton, Colo., 69–118.
18.
Melching, C. S., and Anmangandla, S.(1992). “Improved first-order uncertainty method for water-quality modeling.”J. Envir. Engrg., ASCE, 118(5), 791–805.
19.
New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP). (1987). “Passaic River water quality management study.”Rep., Trenton, N.J.
20.
Reckhow, K.(1979). “The use of simple model and uncertainty analysis in lake management.”Water Resour. Bull., 15(3), 601–611.
21.
Scavia, D., Canale, R. P., Powers, W. F., and Moody, J. L.(1981). “Variance estimates for a dynamic eutrophication model of Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron.”Water Resour. Res., 17(4), 1115–1124.
22.
Streeter, H. W., and Phelps, E. B. (1925). “A study of the pollution and purification of the Ohio River, III. Factors concerned in the phenomena of oxidation and reaeration.”Publ. Health Bull. 146, U.S. Public Health Service, Washington, D.C.
23.
Thomann, R. V.(1982). “Verification of water quality models.”J. Envir. Engrg. Div., ASCE, 108(5), 923–940.
24.
Wilson, G. T., and Macleod, N.(1974). “A critical appraisal of empirical equations and models for the prediction of the coefficient of reaeration of deoxygenated water.”Water Res., 8(6), 341–366.
25.
Yeh, K.-C., and Tung, Y.-K.(1993). “Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of pit-migration model.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 119(2), 262–283.
26.
Yen, B. C., Cheng, S.-T., and Melching, C. S. (1986). “First order reliability analysis.”Stochastic and risk analysis in hydraulic engineering, B. C. Yen, ed., Water Resources Publications, Littleton, Colo., 1–36.
27.
Yoon, C. G. (1994). “Uncertainty analysis in stream water quality modeling: Reliability and data collection for variance reduction,” PhD thesis, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, N.J.
28.
Zison, S. W., Mills, W. B., Deimer, D., and Chen, C. W. (1978). “Rates, constants, and kinetic formulations in surface water quality modeling.”Rep. EPA/600/3-78/105, U.S. Envir. Protection Agency, Athens, Ga.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 122 • Issue 2 • March 1996
Pages: 105 - 113
Copyright
Copyright © 1996 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Mar 1, 1996
Published in print: Mar 1996
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.