Water Resource Systems Models: Their Role in Planning
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 118, Issue 3
Abstract
Planning is an integral part of water resources development and management. Whether or not particular plans or programs are eventually implemented, the planning process itself forces us to think about what we are or should be doing to address a particular set of problems or needs. The planning process should lead to a better understanding of what will happen if we do or do not act and, if we decide to do something, which of many possible actions is likely to be the best. Such planning requires information. Models are an increasingly important source of information, but such information is never complete, is rarely if ever certain, and hence is never a substitute for the judgment of experienced planners and managers. This paper attempts to reflect on the broader context in which models are used in the practice of planning, the inherent limitations of models in this broader context, and hence the challenges modelers have when addressing the information needs of planners and managers. Some criteria for judging the degree to which models have met these needs are reviewed. The paper concludes with some thoughts on the current state of planning models and supporting technology.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Ahearne, J. F. (1988). “Addressing public concerns in science.” Physics Today, 36–42.
2.
Austin, T. A. (1986). “Utilization of models in water resources.” Water Resour. Bulletin, 22(1), 49–56.
3.
Carey, W. D. (1988). “Scientists and sandboxes: Regions of the mind.” American Sci., 76, 143–145.
4.
Gass, S. I. (1990). “Model world: Have model, will travel.” Interfaces, 20(2), 67–71.
5.
Goeller, B. F. (1988). “A framework for evaluating success in systems analysis.” Report P‐7454, The Rand Corp., Santa Monica, Calif.
6.
Kindler, J. (1987). “Systems analysis approach to water resources management: state of the art.” Int. Symp. on Recent Developments and Perspectives in Systems Analysis in Water Resour. Mgmt., WARREDOC, Perugia, Italy.
7.
Kindler, J. (1988). “Systems analysis and water resources planning.” Int. Symp. on Systems Analysis Applied to Mgmt. of Water Resour., Rabat, Morocco.
8.
Loucks, D. P., Stedinger, J. R., and Shamir, U. (1985). “Modelling water resources systems: issues and experiences.” Civ. Engrg. Systems, 2, 223–231.
9.
Majoni, G., and Quade, E. S. (1980). Pitfalls of analysis. John Wiley and Sons, New York, N. Y.
10.
Miser, H. J. (1980). “Operations research and systems analysis.” Sci., 209, 174–182.
11.
Pool, R. (1990). “Struggling to do science for society.” Sci., 248, 672–673.
12.
Reynolds, P. J. (1987). “Future research needs in systems analysis and to application to water resources management.” Int. Symp. on Recent Developments and Perspectives in Systems Analysis in Water Resour. Mgmt., WARREDOC, Perugia, Italy.
13.
Rogers, P. P., and Fiering, M. B (1986). “Use of systems analysis in water management.” Water Resour. Res., 22(9).
14.
Shapiro, H. T. (1990). “The willingness to risk failure.” Science, 250(4981), 609.
15.
Simon, H. A. (1988). “Prediction and prescription in system modeling.” 15th Anniversary of IIASA, Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis.
16.
Simonovic, S. P., et al. (eds.) (1990). “Water resource systems application.” Proc. Int. Symp. on Water Resource Systems Application, University of Manitoba.
17.
Stokey, E., and Zeckhauser, R. (1977). A primer for policy analysis. W. W. Norton and Co., Inc., New York, N. Y.
18.
Tomlison, R. (1980). “Doing something about the future.” J. Operational Res. Soc., 31, 467–476.
19.
Walker, W. E. (1987). “Important hard problems in public policy analysis.” Report P‐7282, The Rand Corp., Santa Monica, Calif.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 118 • Issue 3 • May 1992
Pages: 214 - 223
Copyright
Copyright © 1992 ASCE.
History
Published online: May 1, 1992
Published in print: May 1992
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.