Simple Stochastic Model for Annual Flows
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 116, Issue 2
Abstract
Persistence is a phenomenon greatly influencing hydrologic time series. An explanation of its nature has been attempted in different ways, including transitory behavior or infinite memory of the process, and nonstationary process mean. An operational stochastic model for annual discharges is studied in this paper; its purpose is to reproduce the altemance of periods, sometimes called cycles, observed in hydrology. The model is of almost immediate application, being defined by parameters that can be estimated easily through the analysis of the autocorrelation function of the observed data. The model is expressed in two forms that are valid for the cases of normal and lognormal distributions of the variables, respectively. The dependence of the parameters of the variables distribution on the operating parameters of the process is graphically represented by curves interpolated from a large number of sampling points. The performance of the model is also evaluated with respect to its behavior in accordance to Hurst's phenomenon, by verifying the values assumed by Hurst's coefficient during the simulations.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Boes, D. C., and Salas, J. D. (1978). “Nonstationarity of the mean and the Hurst phenomenon.” Water Resour. Res., 14(1), 135–143.
2.
Bras, R. L., and Rodriguez‐Iturbe, I. (1985). Random functions in hydrology. Addison‐Wesley Publishing Co., Reading, Mass.
3.
Hurst, H. E. (1951). “Long term storage capacity of reservoirs.” Trans., ASCE, 116, 770–800.
4.
Hurst, H. E. (1957). “A suggested statistical model of some time series which occur in nature.” Nature, 180(4584), 494.
5.
Klemes, V. (1974). “The Hurst phenomenon: A puzzle?” Water Resour. Res., 10(4), 675–688.
6.
O'Connel, P. E. (1977). “ARIMA models in synthetic hydrology.” Mathematical models for surface water hydrology, T. A. Ciriani, U. Maione, and J. R. Wallis, eds., John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 ASCE.
History
Published online: Mar 1, 1990
Published in print: Mar 1990
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.