Estimating Uncertainty of Stormwater Runoff Computations
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 116, Issue 2
Abstract
The stormwater runoff quantity component of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers storage, treatment, overflow, and runoff model (STORM) program has been successfully calibrated and verified for a residential community located in Dallas, Texas. Limited water quality data preclude application of typical statistical testing of model runoff quality predictive capabilities. A Monte Carlo simulation technique is therefore employed to ascertain probable ranges of STORM water quality predictions in light of both water quantity and quality input parameter uncertainties. The resulting 95% occurrence intervals of probable model runs are compared with a limited water quality data set to test model adequacy. An original modeling scenario, utilizing suggested areal accumulation rates derived from a study conducted in Seattle, Washington, is rejected because the measured total suspended solids concentrations are far above the upper bound of the computed 95% occurrence interval. A second modeling scenario using areal accumulation rates obtained from Tulsa, Oklahoma, cannot be rejected based upon the comparison of measured data and the computed 95% occurrence intervals.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 116 • Issue 2 • March 1990
Pages: 187 - 204
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 ASCE.
History
Published online: Mar 1, 1990
Published in print: Mar 1990
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