Climate Change Implications for Flexible Pavement Design and Performance in Southern Canada
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 135, Issue 10
Abstract
Two types of analysis were conducted to examine the impacts of midcentury scenarios of anthropogenic climate change on flexible pavement infrastructure in southern Canada. An analysis of deterioration-relevant climate indicators at 17 southern Canadian sites revealed that over the next 50 years low temperature cracking will become less problematic, structures will freeze later and thaw earlier with correspondingly shorter freeze season lengths, and higher extreme in-service pavement temperatures will raise the potential for rutting. Pavement performance simulations conducted using the mechanistic-empirical pavement design guide and data from the Canadian long term pavement performance program for six of these sites also suggest that rutting issues will be exacerbated by climate change and that maintenance, rehabilitation, or reconstruction will be required earlier in the design life. While the simulated effect of climate change was found to be modest, both in absolute terms and relative to variability in pavement structure and baseline traffic loads, pavement engineers would benefit by incorporating longer time series of weather and climate in their designs. Although the analysis was conducted for southern Canada, many of the findings and impacts may be similar for the northern United States.
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Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the funding and in-kind contributions provided by Environment Canada and the federal Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program managed by Natural Resources Canada (Project No. UNSPECIFIEDA812). Special thanks are extended to Winnie Li, a co-op student, for assistance with running the MEPDG scenarios and to Suzanne Parm, a graduate student who assisted with the freeze-thaw analysis. Constructive comments and editing suggestions from three anonymous reviewers are also appreciated.
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© 2009 ASCE.
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Received: Dec 7, 2007
Accepted: May 27, 2009
Published online: Sep 15, 2009
Published in print: Oct 2009
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