Analysis and Modeling of Simultaneous and Staged Emergency Evacuations
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 133, Issue 3
Abstract
Disaster response in areas of high population density is centered on efficient evacuation of people and/or goods. Developing evacuation plans suitable for different levels of urgency based on the intensity of threat is a challenging task. In this study, mathematical models are developed for estimating evacuation time and delay. Evacuation time is the duration required for evacuating all vehicles from a designated region, whereas delay includes queuing and moving delays. The relationship between delay and evacuation time is investigated, and the impact of staged evacuation against simultaneous evacuation is analyzed. An example is provided to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model. A numerical method is adopted to determine the optimal number of evacuation stages. Sensitivity analysis of parameters (e.g., demand density, access flow rate, and evacuation route length) affecting evacuation time and delay is conducted. Results indicate that evacuation time and delay can be significantly reduced if staged evacuation is appropriately implemented.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Chen, X., and Zhan, B. F. (2004). “Agent-based modeling and simulation of urban evacuation: Relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies.” TRB 83rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers (CD-ROM), Washington, D.C.
Cova, T. J., and Johnson, J. P. (2002). “Microsimulation of neighborhood evacuations in the urban-wildland interface.” Environ. Plan. B: Plan. Des., 34, 2211–2229.
Cova, T. J., and Johnson, J. P. (2003). “A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing.” Transp. Res., Part A: Policy Pract., 37, 579–604.
Hamza-Lup, G. L., Hua, K. A., Le, M., and Rui, P. (2004).“Enhancing intelligent transportation systems to improve and support homeland security.” IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conf., Washington, D.C.
Han, L. D., and Yuan, F. (2005). “Evacuation modeling and operations using dynamic traffic assignment and most desirable destination approaches.” TRB 84th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers (CD-ROM), Washington, D.C.
Kwon, E., and Pitt, S. (2005). “Evaluation of emergency evacuation strategies for downtown event traffic using a dynamic network model.” Transportation Research Record. 1922, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 149–155.
Malone, S., Miller, C. A., and Neill, D. B. (2001). “Traffic flow models and the evacuation problem.” UMAP J., 22, 271–290.
Murray-Tuite, P. M., and Mahmassani, H. S. (2004). “Transportation network evacuation planning with household activity interactions.” Transportation Research Record. 1894, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 150–159.
Roess, R. P., William, M. R., and Prassas, E. S. (1998). Traffic engineering, Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, N.J., 121, 285.
Sinuany-Stern, Z., and Stern, E. (1993). “Simulating the evacuation of a small city: The effects of traffic factors.” Socio-Econ. Plan. Sci., 27(2), 97–108.
Transportation Research Board (TRB). (2000). Highway capacity manual, Chap. 31 and Special Report No. 209, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Tuydes, H., and Ziliaskopoulos, A. (2004). “Network re-design to optimize evacuation contraflow.” TRB 83rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers (CD-ROM), Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
Urbanik, T. (1978). “Texas hurricane evacuation study.” Texas Transportation Institute, College Station, Tex.
Urbanik, T., and Desrosler, A. E. (1981). “An analysis of evacuation time estimates around 52 nuclear power plant sites.” U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR 7856(1), Washington, D.C.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). (1979). “Lee County, Florida flood emergency evacuation plan.” Dept. of the Army, and Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 133 • Issue 3 • March 2007
Pages: 190 - 197
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Feb 7, 2006
Accepted: Aug 11, 2006
Published online: Mar 1, 2007
Published in print: Mar 2007
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.