Evaluation of Speed-Based Travel Time Estimation Models
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 132, Issue 7
Abstract
Travel time estimation models, which rely on speed data provided from point detectors (usually inductive loops), have application in travel time prediction and network performance monitoring. Unfortunately there are limited, and at times counterintuitive, results in the literature about their performance. This paper focuses on the field evaluation of four speed-based travel time estimation models, namely, the instantaneous model, the time slice model, the dynamic time slice model, and the linear model. Those models are evaluated using data from two operational motorways in Melbourne, Australia. Travel time estimation errors are quantified against actual travel times measured using a timed number plate survey and time-stamped toll tag data. There was little difference in the travel time estimation error across the models and they were all found to underestimate actual travel times. Errors ranged from about 7% in the off peak up to 15% in the peak. Marginal improvements in model performance were achieved through careful selection of which detectors provide input for each section (upstream, downstream, or the average of those values) and by conversion of the inputs from time mean speed to an estimate of space mean speed.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The writers gratefully acknowledge Transurban and VicRoads for supplying the data used in this research.
References
Bajwa, S. U. I., Chung, E., and Kuwahara, M. (2003). “A travel time prediction method based on pattern matching technique.” Proc., 21st ARRB Transport Research Conf. (CD-ROM), ARRB, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.
Bovy, P. H. L., and Thijs, R. (2000). “Estimators of travel time for road networks.” http://www.trail.tudelft.nl/verkeerskunde/ (July 20, 2003).
Burrus, S. C., Gopinath, R. A., and Guo, H. T. (1998). Introduction to wavelets and wavelet transform: A primer, Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.
Cortes, C. E., Lavanya, R. O., Jun-Seok, and Jayakrishnan, R. (2002). “General-purpose methodology for estimating link travel time with multiple-point detection of traffic.” Transportation Research Record. 1802, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 181–189.
Haj, S. H. (1998). “Appendix F: France test site: Travel time estimation and forecasting: Evaluation results.” Daccord Deliverable 10.1, Hague Consulting Group, Hague, The Netherlands.
Kloot, G. (1999). “Melbourne's arterial travel time system.” Proc., 6th World Congress on ITS (CD-ROM), ITSA, Toronto.
Lindveld, C. D. R., and Thijs, R. (1999). “On-line travel time estimation using inductive loop data: the effect of instrumentation peculiarities.” Proc., 6th World Congress on ITS (CD-ROM), ITSA, Toronto.
Lindveld, C. D. R., Thijs, R., Bovy, P. H. L., and Van der Zijpp, N. J. (2000). “Evaluation of online travel time estimators and predictors.” Transportation Research Record. 1719, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 45–53.
May, A. D. (1990). Traffic flow fundamentals, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
OZ Engineering and MotionMaps. (2004). “Travel time estimates, displays and forecasts–Final report.” AZTEch Phase III Program for Advanced Traveller Information Services for the Deployment of Service D: Technical Rep. No. 2, Maricopa County Dept. of Transportation, Ariz.
Paterson, D. W. (2000). “The real time prediction of freeway travel times.” Ph.D. thesis, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Australia.
Smith, B. L., Holt, R. B., and Park, B. (2004). “Travel time estimation for urban freeway performance measurement: understanding and improving upon the extrapolation method.” Proc., 83rd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting (CD-ROM), Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
Turner, S. M., Eisele, S. M., Benz, R. J., and Holdener, D. J. (1998). “Travel time data collection handbook.” Rep. No. FHWA-PL-98-035, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, Tex.
Van Lint, J. W. C. (2004). “Quantifying uncertainty in real-time neural network based freeway travel prediction.” Proc., 83rd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting (CD-ROM), Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
Van Lint, J. W. C., and Van der Zijpp, N. J. (2003). “An improved travel-time estimation algorithm using dual loop detectors.” Proc., 82nd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting (CD-ROM), Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
Van Lint, J. W. C., Tu, H., and Van Zuylen, H. J. (2004). “Travel time reliability on freeways.” Proc., 10th World Conf. on Transport Research (WCTR) (CD-ROM), WCTRS, Istanbul, Turkey.
Zhang, X., and Rice, J. A. (2003). “Short-term travel time prediction.” Transp. Res., Part C: Emerg. Technol., 11C (3-4), 187–210.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: Apr 12, 2005
Accepted: Dec 9, 2005
Published online: Jul 1, 2006
Published in print: Jul 2006
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.