Modeling Demand for Public Transit Services in Rural Areas
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 123, Issue 3
Abstract
Accurate estimates of demand are critical for planning, designing, and operating public transit systems. Previous research has demonstrated that the expected demand in rural areas is a function of both demographic and transit system variables. Numerous models have been proposed to describe the relationship between the aforementioned variables. However, most of them are site specific and their validity over time and space is not reported or perhaps has not been tested. Moreover, input variables in some cases are extremely difficult to quantify. In this article, the estimation of demand using the generalized linear modeling technique is discussed. Two separate models, one for fixed-route and another for demand-responsive services, are presented. These models, calibrated with data from systems in nine different states, are used to demonstrate the appropriateness and validity of generalized linear models compared to the regression models. They explain over 70% of the variation in expected demand for fixed-route services and 60% of the variation in expected demand for demand-responsive services. It was found that the models are spatially transferable and that data for calibration are easily obtainable.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Atkin, M., Anderson, D., Francis, B., and Hinde, J. (1989). “Chapter 7: statistical modeling and statistical inference.”Statistical modelling in GLIM, 67–112.
2.
Black, W. R. (1993). “Development of an ideal model for the identification of rural public transit needs.”72nd Annu. Meeting, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
3.
Burkhardt, J. E., and Lago, A. M. (1976). “Methods of predicting rural transit demand.” Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of Transportation.
4.
Gray, G. E., and Hoel, L. A. (1992). Public transportation: rural public transportation, 2nd Ed., Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
5.
Johnson, M. A., and Adiv, A. (1978). “Forecasting travel demand in small areas by using disaggregate behavioral models.”Transp. Res. Rec. 673, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 26–31.
6.
Larson, T. D., and Lima, P. M.(1975). “Rural public transportation.”Traffic Quarterly, 29(3), 369–384.
7.
Neumann, E. S., and Byrne, B. F. (1978). “A Poisson model for rural transit ridership.”Transp. Res. Rec. 661, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 21–27.
8.
Rural Transit Assistance Program. (1989). A directory of UMTA-funded rural and specialized transit systems. U.S. Department of Transportation, Rural Transit Assistance Program, Washington, D.C.
9.
Rural Transportation. (1985). “The role of public and non-profit providers.”Rep. no. 99-24, Government Documents, U.S. Dept. of Transp.
10.
Smith, R. L. Jr. (1977). “Evaluation of rural public transportation demand models that include level-of-service measures.”Transp. Res. Rec. 638, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 49–51.
11.
Statistical models in “S.” (1990). Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole Computer Science Series, Wadsworth Inc., Belmont, Calif.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1997 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: May 1, 1997
Published in print: May 1997
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.