Probabilistic Demand Models and Fragility Curves for Reinforced Concrete Frames
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 132, Issue 10
Abstract
Fragility curves are constructed to assess the seismic vulnerability of a hypothetical two-story reinforced concrete frame building designed only for gravity loads. Fragility curves are also developed for the same building modestly retrofitted by means of column strengthening. A Bayesian methodology is used to construct probabilistic demand models to predict the maximum inter-story drifts, given the spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the building. The data for the models are obtained using two-dimensional inelastic time history analyses of the building for a suite of synthetic ground motions, developed for the Memphis region. The models are developed using both equality data and lower bound data, and are developed to properly account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In the absence of probabilistic capacity models for gravity load designed structures, capacity limit states are considered based on FEMA 356 guidelines and deterministic nonlinear pushover analyses. The results quantify the vulnerability of low-rise reinforced concrete frame buildings and show the effectiveness of seismic retrofitting in reducing the probability of failure.
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Acknowledgments
The writers wish to acknowledge the National Science Foundation and the University of Illinois who funded this research through the Mid-America Earthquake Center (NSF Grant No. NSFEEC-9701785). The financial support provided by the Zachry Department of Civil Engineering and the Texas Engineering Experiment Station at Texas A&M University, where this research was conducted, is also appreciated. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the sponsors.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 132 • Issue 10 • October 2006
Pages: 1563 - 1572
Copyright
© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: May 9, 2005
Accepted: Dec 5, 2005
Published online: Oct 1, 2006
Published in print: Oct 2006
Notes
Note. Associate Editor: Reginald DesRoches
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