Bayesian Prediction of Elastic Modulus of Concrete
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 124, Issue 1
Abstract
The Bayesian updating rule is used to assess the American Concrete Institute (ACI) model relating the elastic modulus of concrete to its compressive strength. Uncertainties inherent to the modeling process are identified. A likelihood function for the assessment of the model is derived assuming statistical independence between observations. This function is subsequently modified to account for model-induced correlation. It is shown that the correlation effectively reduces the amount of information contained in the data. The likelihood model is used with data available from literature and new data acquired at the University of California, Berkeley, for a specific concrete mix to compute the posterior statistics of the model parameters and to derive a predictive model for the elastic modulus of concrete. The presented approach is unique as it accounts for all sources of model uncertainty, deals with the important issue of model-induced correlation, and shows how Bayesian updating can be used to derive an improved predictive model for a specific concrete mix. Use of the proposed approach in performance-based codified design is discussed.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
American Concrete Institute (ACI). (1992). ACI manual of concrete practice: part 1–part 5, Detroit, Mich.
2.
Ang, A.-S., and Tang, W. (1975). Probability concepts in engineering planning and design. Volume I: Basic principles. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y.
3.
Bard, Y. (1974). Nonlinear parameter estimation. Academic Press, Inc., Orlando, Fla.
4.
Bazant, Z., and Chern, J.-C.(1984). “Bayesian statistical prediction of concrete creep and shrinkage.”ACI J., 81(4), 319–330.
5.
Bazant, Z., Kim, J., Wittman, F., and Alou, F.(1987). “Statistical extrapolation of shrinkage data. Part II: Bayesian updating.”ACI Mat. J., 84(2), 83–91.
6.
Box, G., and Tiao, G. (1973). Bayesian inference in statistical analysis. Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., Reading, Mass.
7.
Davis, P. J., and Rabinowitz, P. (1984). Methods of numerical integration. Academic Press, Inc., Boston, Mass.
8.
Der Kiureghian, A. (1990). “Bayesian analysis of model uncertainty in structural reliability.”Proc., 3rd IFIP WG7.5 Working Conf. on Reliability and Optimization of Struct. Sys., Springer-Verlag KG, Berlin, Germany, 211–221.
9.
Geyskens, P., Der Kiureghian, A., and Monteiro, P. (1993). “BUMP—Bayesian updating of model parameters.”Tech. Rep. UCB/SEMM-93/06, Dept. of Civ. Engrg., University of California, Berkeley, Calif.
10.
Hanson, J.(1958). “Shear strength of lightweight reinforced concrete beams.”ACI J., 30(3), 387–403.
11.
Pauw, A.(1960). “Static modulus of elasticity of concrete as affected by density.”ACI J., 32(6), 679–687.
12.
Shideler, J.(1957). “Lightweight-aggregate concrete for structural use.”ACI J., 29(4), 299–328.
13.
Smith, A.(1991). “Bayesian computational methods.”Philosophical Trans. to the Royal Soc. of London, Ser. A: Phys. Sci. and Engrg., 337(1647), 369–386.
14.
Zellner, A. (1988). “Bayesian analysis in econometrics.”J. of Econometrics, 37(1) 27–50.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Jan 1, 1998
Published in print: Jan 1998
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.