Prediction of Hurricane Wind Speeds in the United States
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 121, Issue 11
Abstract
Prediction of hurricane wind speeds using a simulation approach is the most universally accepted methodology for estimating design wind speeds in hurricane-prone regions of the world. An updated hurricane simulation methodology incorporating newly developed wind-field and filling models is used to obtain hurricane wind speeds associated with various return periods along the hurricane-prone coastline of the United States. Simulation results using the new hurricane simulation methodology indicate that design wind speeds given in ASCE-7-88 for the inland portion of the hurricane-prone coastline are excessive, and that the long-return-period wind speeds given in 1980 by Batts et al. are low. The simulation approach is extended to illustrate areawide hurricane area risk versus single-point risk by comparing hurricane risk for Dade County, Fla., to a single-point risk of a building in Miami, Fla.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Batts, M. E., Cordes, M. R., Russell, C. R., Shaver, J. R., and Simiu, E. (1980). “Hurricane windspeeds in the United States.”Nat. Bureau of Standards Rep. No. BSS-124, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
2.
Georgiou, P. N. (1985). “Design windspeeds in tropical cyclone-prone regions,” PhD thesis, Fac. of Engrg. Sci., Univ. of Western Ontario, London, Ont., Canada.
3.
Georgiou, P. N., Davenport, A. G., and Vickery, B. J. (1983). “Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones.”J. Wind Engrg. and Industrial Aerodynamics, 13(1–3), 139–152.
4.
Ho, F. P., et al. (1987). “Hurricane climatology for the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States.”NOAA Tech. Rep. NWS38, Federal Emergency Mgmt. Agency, Nat. Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. (NOAA), Washington, D.C.
5.
Krayer, W. R., and Marshall, R. D.(1992). “Gust factors applied to hurricane winds.”Bull. Am. Meteorological Soc., 73(5), 613–617.
6.
“Minimum design loads for buildings and other structures.” (1990). ASCE-7-88, ASCE, New York, N.Y.
7.
Neumann, C. J. (1991). “The national hurricane center risk analysis program (HURISK).”NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 38, Nat. Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. (NOAA), Washington, D.C.
8.
Reinhold, T. A., Vickery, P. J., and Powell, M. D. (1993). “Windspeeds in Hurricane Andrew: myths and reality.”7th U.S. Nat. Conf. on Wind Engrg., Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Calif., 553–562.
9.
Russell, L. R. (1968). “Probability distributions for Texas Gulf Coast hurricane effects of engineering interest,” PhD thesis, Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif.
10.
Russell, L. R. (1971). “Probability distributions for hurricane effects.”J. Wtrwy., Harbors, and Coast. Engrg. Div., ASCE, 97(1), 139– 154.
11.
Russell, L. R., and Schueller, G. F. (1974). “Probabilistic models for Texas Gulf Coast hurricane occurrences.”J. Petroleum Technol., 279–288.
12.
Sanchez-Sesma, J., Aguirre, J., and Sen, M. (1988). “Simple modeling procedure for estimation of cyclonic wind speeds. `' J. Struct. Engrg., ASCE, 114(2), 352–370.
13.
Shapiro, L. J.(1983). “The asymmetric boundary layer flow under a translating hurricane.”J. Atmospheric Sci., AMS, 40(8), 1984–1998.
14.
Tryggvason, B. V., Surry, D., and Davenport, A. G.(1976). “Predicting wind-induced response in hurricane zones.”J. Struct. Div., ASCE, 102(12), 2333–2350.
15.
Twisdale, L. A., and Vickery, P. J. (1992). “Predictive methods for hurricane winds in the United States.”Final Rep. Small Business Innovation Grant ISI 916035, Nat. Sci. Found., Washington, D.C.
16.
Twisdale, L. A., and Dunn, W. L. (1983). “Extreme wind risk analysis of the Indian Point Nuclear Generation Station.”Final Rep. 44T-2491, Addendum to Rep. 44T-2171, Res. Triangle Inst. Research Triangle Park, N.C.
17.
Vickery, P. J., and Twisdale, L. A.(1995). “Wind-field and filling models for hurricane wind speed predictions.”J. Struct. Engrg., ASCE, 121(11), 1700–1709.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 121 • Issue 11 • November 1995
Pages: 1691 - 1699
Copyright
Copyright © 1995 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Nov 1, 1995
Published in print: Nov 1995
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.