Uncertainty of Predictions of Embankment Dam Breach Parameters
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 130, Issue 5
Abstract
Risk assessment studies considering the failure of embankment dams often require the prediction of basic geometric and temporal parameters of a breach, or the estimation of peak breach outflows. Many of the relations most commonly used to make these predictions were developed from statistical analyses of data collected from historic dam failures. The prediction uncertainties of these methods are widely recognized to be very large, but have never been specifically quantified. This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainty of many of these breach parameter and peak flow prediction methods. Application of the methods and the uncertainty analysis are illustrated through a case study of a risk assessment recently performed by the Bureau of Reclamation for a large embankment dam in North Dakota.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 130 • Issue 5 • May 2004
Pages: 389 - 397
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 25, 2002
Accepted: Sep 25, 2003
Published online: Apr 15, 2004
Published in print: May 2004
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