Probabilistic Bridge Scour Estimates
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 124, Issue 7
Abstract
Scour at bridges is generally estimated as a deterministic value. Other loads at bridges, such as vessel impact and wind loads, are determined as probabilistic values. In an effort to use probabilistic estimates as a tool in decision making, a probabilistic framework was developed for estimating scour using deterministic methods given in the Hydraulic Engineering Circular (HEC-18). Uncertainties in the HEC-18 model, in determination of the parameters and in estimating the hydraulic variables for a large event storm, were included in the analysis. The probabilistic framework can then be used as the basis for determining the likelihood of achieving various scour depths, probabilities of failure for various foundation designs, pile depths necessary to achieve a specified probability of failure for a design bridge life span, and for comparing designs based on various storm events. The Bonner Bridge in North Carolina is used as an example. Pile depths appropriate for various design life spans are calculated based on both 100- and 500-year storm events.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
AASHTO (1991). “Guide specifications and commentary for vessel collision design of highway bridge.” Vol. I. Final Rep., American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C.
2.
Ang, A. H.-S., and Tang, W. H. (1984). Probability concepts in engineering planning and design. Vol. II, John Wiley & Sons, New York, N.Y.
3.
Ayyub, B. M., and Haldar, A.(1985). “Practical structural reliability techniques.”J. Struct. Engrg., ASCE, 110(8), 1707–1724.
4.
Barbe, D. E., Cruise, J. F., and Singh, V. P. (1992). “Probabilistic approach to local bridge pier scour.”Transp. Res. Rec. 1350, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 28–33.
5.
Chang, C.-H., Tung, Y.-K., and Yang, J.-C.(1994). “Monte Carlo simulation for correlated variables with marginal distributions.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 120(3), 313–331.
6.
Eagleson, P. S. (1985). “Areal coverage of storm precipitation.” Mass. Inst. of Tech., Rep. NAS 1.26:176013, MIT, Cambridge, Mass.
7.
Gates, T. K., and Al-Zahrani, M. A. (1996). “Spatiotemporal stochastic open-channel flow I: Model, and parameter data.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, in press.
8.
Harrison, L. J., and Morris, J. L. (1991). “Bridge scour vulnerability assessment.”Proc., 1991 ASCE Nat. Conf. on Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, New York, N.Y., 209–214.
9.
Hopkins, G. R., Vance, R. W., and Kasraie, B. (1980). “Scour around bridge piers.”Rep. FHWA-RD-79-103, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.
10.
Johnson, P. A.(1992). “Reliability-based pier scour engineering.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 118(10), 1344–1358.
11.
Johnson, P. A.(1995). “Comparison of pier scour equations using field data.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 121(8), 626–629.
12.
Johnson, P. A.(1996). “Uncertainty of hydraulic parameters.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 122(2), 112–115.
13.
Johnson, P. A., and Ayyub, B. M.(1992). “Assessment of time-variant bridge reliability due to pier scour.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 118(6), 887–903.
14.
Johnson, P. A., and McCuen, R. H. (1991). “A temporal, spatial pier scour model.”Rec. 1319, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
15.
Jones, J. S. (1983). “Comparison of prediction equations for bridge pier and abutment scour.”Second Bridge Engrg. Conf., Vol. 2, Rec. 950, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
16.
Kamojjala, S., Gattu, N. P., Parola, A. C., and Hagerty, D. J. (1994). “Analysis of 1993 upper Mississippi flood highway infrastructure damage.”Proc., 1st Int. Conf. of Water Resour. Engrg., ASCE, New York, N.Y., 1061–1065.
17.
Lagasse, P. F., Thompson, P. L., and Sabol, S. A. (1995). “Guarding against scour.”Civ. Engrg., ASCE, June, 1995.
18.
Laursen, E. M.(1970). “Bridge design considering scour and risk.”J. Transp. Engrg., ASCE, 96(2), 149–164.
19.
Lewis, E. E. (1994). Introduction to reliability. John Wiley & Sons, New York, N.Y., 148–149.
20.
Murillo, J. A.(1987). “The scourge of scour.”Civ. Engrg., ASCE, 57(7), 66–69.
21.
Parola, A. C., et al. (1995). “Scour at bridge foundations: research needs.”NCHRP Project 24-8 Interim Rep., Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
22.
Ports, M., Johnson, P. A., and Rahmani, A. (1997). “Assessing scour in a dynamic coastal environment: the case of the Bonner Bridge.”Civ. Engrg., ASCE, in press.
23.
Radok, V., and Brown, T. J. (1992). “Detecting change as it occurs.”Rep. NAS 1.26:191939, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, Boulder, Colo.
24.
Richardson, E. V., and Davis, S. R. (1995). “Evaluating scour at bridges.”HEC-18, FHWA-IP-90-017, 3rd Ed., U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 124 • Issue 7 • July 1998
Pages: 750 - 754
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Jul 1, 1998
Published in print: Jul 1998
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.