Rainfall-Runoff Model Accuracy for an Extreme Flood
Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 121, Issue 4
Abstract
Relatively little is known about the accuracy of conceptual rainfall-runoff model simulations of extreme floods. A case study is used to evaluate the accuracy of runoff model simulations of the 100-year flood of July 1, 1978 on the Kickapoo River (drainage area = 690 km 2 ), in southwest Wisconsin. The accuracy of a simple and quick analysis is compared to that of an elaborate, labor-intensive analysis. The more elaborate modeling approach produces more accurate results, although significant errors for the peak discharge and runoff volume are observed in both approaches. The potential sources of uncertainty in the results are evaluated. Error in the precipitation data used for calibrating the model appears to be the primary source of uncertainty.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Beven, K. J., and Hornberger, G. M.(1982). “Assessing the effect of spatial pattern of precipitation in modeling stream flow hydrographs.”Water Resour. Bull., 18(5), 823–829.
2.
Bradley, A. A., and Potter, K. P.(1992). “Flood frequency analysis of simulated flows.”Water Resour. Res., 28(9), 2375–2385.
3.
Chew, Y. C., Moore, L. W., and Smith, R. H.(1991). “Hydrological simulation of Tennessee's North Reelfoot Creek watershed.”Res. J. Water Pollution Control Federation, 63(1), 10–16.
4.
Clarke, R. T.(1973). “A review of some mathematical models used in hydrology, with observations on their calibration and use.”J. Hydrol., 19, 1–20.
5.
Crawford, N. H., and Linsley, R. K. (1966). “Digital simulation in hydrology: Stanford watershed model IV.”Tech. Rep. 39, Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif.
6.
Dawdy, D. R., and Bergmann, J. M.(1969). “Effect of rainfall variability on streamflow simulation.”Water Resour. Res., 5(5), 958–966.
7.
Design memorandum No. 1; hydrology and hydraulic analysis, La Farge Reservoir. (1966). St. Paul District, U.S. Army Corps of Engrs., St. Paul, Minn.
8.
Donigian, A. S., Imhoff, J. C., Bicknell, B. R., and Kittle, J. L. (1984). Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF); application guide . Envir. Protection Agency (EPA), Athens, Ga.
9.
Fontaine, T. A.(1991). “Predicting measurement error of areal mean precipitation during extreme events.”Water Res. Bull., 27(3), 509–520.
10.
Franchini, M., and Pacciani, M. (1991). “Comparative analysis of several conceptual rainfall-runoff models.”J. Hydrol., (122), 161–219.
11.
Franz, D. D., Kraeger, B. A., and Linsley, R. K.(1991). “Estimating the frequency of extreme flood events.”EOS, 72(32), 276–277.
12.
Gan, T. Y., and Burges, S. J.(1990a). “An assessment of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model's ability to represent the dynamics of small hypothetical catchments. 1: Models, model properties, and experimental design.”Water Resour. Res., 26(7), 1595–1604.
13.
Gan, T. Y., and Burges, S. J.(1990b). “An assessment of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model's ability to represent the dynamics of small hypothetical catchments. 2: Hydrological responses for normal and extreme rainfall.”Water Resour. Res., 26(7), 1605–1619.
14.
Garen, D. C., and Burges, S. J.(1981). “Approximate error bounds for simulated hydrographs.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 107(11), 1519–1534.
15.
HEC-1 flood hydrograph package; users manual. (1981). U.S. Army Corps of Engrs., Davis, Calif.
16.
Hughes, P. E., Hannuksela, J. S., and Danchuk, W. J. (1981). “Flood of July 1–5, 1978 on the Kickapoo River, southwestern Wisconsin.”Hydrologic Investigations, Atlas HA-653, United States Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
17.
Johanson, R. C., Imhoff, J. C., Kittle, J. L., and Donigian, A. S. (1984). Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF); users manual for release 8.0 . Envir. Protection Agency (EPA), Athens, Ga.
18.
Larson, L. W., and Peck, E. L.(1974). “Accuracy of precipitation measurements for hydrologic modeling.”Water Resour. Res., 10(4), 857–863.
19.
Linsley, R. K., Kohler, M. A., and Paulhus, J. L. H. (1982). Hydrology for engineers . McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York, N.Y.
20.
Loague, K. M., and Freeze, R. A.(1985). “A comparison of rainfall-runoff modeling techniques on small upland catchments.”Water Resour. Res., 21(2), 229–248.
21.
National engineering handbook; section 4—hydrology. (1972). Soil Conservation Service (SCS), U.S. Dept. of Agric., Washington, D.C.
22.
Nat. Res. Council (NRC). (1988). “Estimating probabilities of extreme floods: methods and recommended research.”Rep., Committee on Techniques for Estimating Probabilities of Extreme Floods, Water Sci. and Technol. Board, Washington, D.C.
23.
Schilling, W., and Fuchs, L.(1986). “Errors in stormwater modeling—a quantitative assessment.”J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 112(2), 111–123.
24.
Thomas, W. O. (1986). “Comparison of flood-frequency estimates based on observed and model generated peak flows.”Hydrologic frequency modeling; Proc., Int. Symp. on Flood Frequency and Risk Analysis, V. P. Singh, ed., Baton Rouge, La.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 121 • Issue 4 • April 1995
Pages: 365 - 374
Copyright
Copyright © 1995 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Apr 1, 1995
Published in print: Apr 1995
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.