TECHNICAL PAPERS
Jun 1, 1990

Effect of Drought on Urban Water Supplies. I: Drought Analysis

Publication: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 116, Issue 6

Abstract

This paper summarizes studies conducted for the City of Fort Collins, Colorado, to determine the effects of prolonged droughts on the city's water supplies. As a result of the analysis, various water‐supply strategies were developed to be used by the city for handling the problems associated with extreme droughts. This study utilized stochastic modeling coupled with water‐resource‐system modeling to evaluate drought effects on the water supplies of the city. A stochastic model was developed for the five river basins that account for the city's water supplies. The stochastic model was verified with 400 years of tree‐ring data obtained for the area. Periods of records were then generated to determine potential droughts that could occur. Representative l‐in‐20‐, l‐in‐50‐, l‐in‐100‐, and 1‐in‐500‐year droughts were selected for the analysis.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

1.
Bartolini, P., and Salas, J. D. (1985). “Properties of multivariate periodic ARMA (1,1) processes.” Paper presented at IV Int. Hydrol. Symp., Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colo.
2.
Booth, A. W., and Voeller, D. (1967). Meteorological drought and its social impact in Illinois. Dept. of Geography, Water Resour. Ctr., Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, Ill.
3.
Chander, S., et al. (1981). “Analysis of surplus and deficit using runs.” J. Hydrol., 49(1/2), 193–208.
4.
Condra, G. E. (1944). “Drought: Its effect and measures of control in Nebraska.” Nebraska Conservation Bulletin No. 25, Univ. of Nebraska, Conservation and Survey Div., Lincoln, Neb.
5.
Correia, F. N., Santos, M. A., and Rodriguez, R. R. (1985). “Engineering risk in regional drought studies.” Paper presented at Advanced Study Inst., on Engrg. Reliability and Risk in Water Resour., Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, Ariz.
6.
Dickerson, W. H., and Dethier, B. E. (1970). “Drought frequency in the northeastern United States.” Bulletin 595, Agricultural Experiment Station, West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, W. Va.
7.
Doesken, N., Kleist, J., and McKee, T. (1983). “Use of the Palmer index and other water supply indexes for drought monitoring in Colorado.” Climatology Report N 83‐3, Dept. of Atmospheric Sci., Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colo.
8.
Dracup, J. A., Lee, K. S., and Paulson, E. G., Jr. (1980a). “Statistical characteristics of drought events.” Water Resour. Res., 16(2), 289–296.
9.
Dracup, J. A., Lee, K. S., and Paulson, E. G., Jr. (1980b). “On the definition of droughts.” Water Resour. Res., 16(2), 297–302.
10.
“Droughts and their effect on the water supplies for the city of Fort Collins, Colorado.” (1985). Resource Consultants, Inc., Fort Collins, Colo.
11.
Frick, D. M., Bode, D., and Salas, J. D. (1990). “Effect of drought on urban water supplies. II: Water‐supply analysis.” J. Hydr. Engrg., ASCE, 116(6), 754–764.
12.
Gibbs, W. J., and Maher, J. V. (1967). “Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Bulletin No. 48, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia.
13.
Guerrero, P., and Yevjevich, V. (1975). “Analysis of drought characteristics by the theory of runs.” Hydrol. Paper No. 80, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colo.
14.
Gupta, V. K., and Duckstein, L. (1975). “A stochastic analysis of extreme droughts.” Water Resour. Res., 11(2), 221–118.
15.
Heathcote, R. L. (1973). “Drought perception.” Environmental, economic, and social significance of drought, J. V. Lovett, ed., Angus and Robertson, Cremorne Junction, Australia.
16.
Hipel, K. W. (1985). “Stochastic research in multivariate analysis, multivariate analysis of hydrologic processes,” Proc., 4th Int. Hydrologic Symp., Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colo.
17.
Lawson, M. P., et al. (1971). “Nebraska droughts: a study of their past chronological and spatial extent with implications for the future.” Occasional Papers No. 1, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, Neb.
18.
McGuire, J. D., and Palmer, W. C. (1957). “The 1957 drought in eastern United States,” Monthly Weather Review, 85(9), 305–314.
19.
Millan, J., and Yeyjevich, V. (1971). “Probabilities of observed droughts.” Hydrol. Paper No. 50, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colo.
20.
Palmer, W. C. (1964). “Moisture, variability and drought severity.” Proc., XIII Annual Meeting of Agric. Res. Inst., Washington, D.C., 145–157.
21.
Palmer, W. C. (1965). “Meteorological drought.” Res. Paper No. 45, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C.
22.
Pinkayan, S. (1966). “Conditional probabilities of occurrence of wet and dry years over large continental area.” Hydrol. Paper No. 12, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colo.
23.
Russell, C. S., Arey, D. G., and Kates, R. W. (1970). “Drought and water supply.” Resources for the Future Inc., Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, Md.
24.
Saarinen, T. F. (1966). “Precipitation of the drought hazard of the great plains.” Res. Paper No. 106, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, Ill.
25.
Salas, J. D., et al. (1980). “Applied modeling of hydrologic time series.” Water Resour. Publications, Littleton, Colo.
26.
Salas, J. D., Tabios, G. Q., III, and Bartolini, P. (1985). “Approaches to multivariate modeling of water resources time series.” Water Resour. Bulletin, 21(4), 683–708.
27.
Saldarriga, J., and Yeyjevich, V. (1970). “Applications of run‐lengths to hydrologic series.” Hydrol. Paper No. 40, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colo.
28.
Santos, M. A. B. (1981). “On the stochastic characterization of regional droughts.” Proc. N. 62/11/7241, Labóratorio Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Lisbon, Portugal.
29.
Santos, M. A. B., Coreia, F. N., and DaCunha, L. V. (1983). “Drought characterization and drought impacts in Portugal.” Memoria N. 591, Labóratorio Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Lisbon, Portugal.
30.
Sen, Z. (1976). “Wet and dry periods of annual flow series.” J. Hydr. Div., ASCE, 102(10), 1503–1514.
31.
Sen, Z. (1980). “Regional drought and flood frequency analysis: Theoretical consideration.” J. Hydrol, 46(3/4), 265–279.
32.
Spar, J. (1968). “The drought in the northeast, 1962‐1966: Introductory remarks.” Proc., Conf. on Drought in the Northeastern United States, New York Univ., Sterling Forest, N.Y.
33.
Stedinger, J. R., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Vogel, R. M. (1985). “Multisite ARMA(1,1) and disaggregation models for annual streamflow generation.” Water Resour. Res., 21(4), 497–509.
34.
Subrahmanyam, V. P. (1967). “Incidence and spread of continental droughts.” Report No. 2, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
35.
Tannehill, I. R. (1947). Drought, its causes and effects. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
36.
Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948). “An approach toward a rational classification of climate.” Geographical Review, 38, 55–94.
37.
Van Bavel, C. H. M., and Verlinden, F. J. (1956). “Agricultural drought in North Carolina,” Tech. Bulletin No. 122, Agric. Experiment Station, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C.
38.
Warrick, R. A. (1975). “Drought hazard in the United States: A research assessment,” NSF‐RA‐E‐75‐004, National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va.
39.
Yevjevich, V. M. (1967). “An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts.” Hydrol. Paper 23, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, Colo.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume 116Issue 6June 1990
Pages: 733 - 753

History

Published online: Jun 1, 1990
Published in print: Jun 1990

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

David M. Frick
Vice Pres. for Engrg., Resour. Consultants, Inc., P.O. Box Q, Fort Collins, CO 80522
Dennis Bode
Water Resour. Engr., City of Fort Collins, P.O. Box 580, Fort Collins, CO 80522
Jose D. Salas, Members, ASCE
Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Hydro, and Water Resour. Program, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 80523

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share