System Reliability of Slope Stability
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
Volume 116, Issue 8
Abstract
In stability problems, the failure probability associated with the critical slip surface is known to be smaller than that for the system that comprises all potential slip surfaces. The difference depends on the correlation between the failure probabilities of the different slip surfaces. Calculations of the upper bound of the probability of system failure were made for the Congress Street cut, in Chicago. The computed upper bound of the probability of system failure is about twice the failure probability for the critical slip surface. The failure probabilities for the slip surfaces that pass through the two clay layers near the bottom of the cut have about the same value. Because of the assumption that the strengths of these layers are statistically independent, the safety factor of a slip surface that passes through the upper clay layer but not the lower one is poorly correlated with that of a slip surface that passes through both layers. This leads to a large difference between the failure probability of the system and that of the critical slip surface.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Alonzo, E. E. (1976). “Rish analysis of slopes and its application to slopes in sensitive Canadian clays.” Geotechnique, London, England, 25(3), 453–472.
2.
Ang, A. H.‐S., and Tang, W. H. (1984). Probability concepts in engineering planning and design. Vol. 2, John Wiley and Sons, New York, N.Y.
3.
Bergado, D. T., and Anderson, L. R. (1985). “Stochastic analysis of pore pressure uncertainty for the probabilistic assessment of safety of earth slopes.” Soils and Found., 25(2), 87–105.
4.
Chowdhury, R. N., Tang, W. H., and Sidi, I. (1987). “Reliability model of progressive slope failure.” Geotechnique, London, England, 37(4), 467–481.
5.
Cornell, C. A. (1967). “Bounds on the reliability of structural systems.” J. Struct. Div., ASCE, 93(1), 171–200.
6.
Cornell, C. A. (1971). “First‐order uncertainty analysis of soils deformation and stability.” Proc., 1st Int. Conf. on Application of Statistics and Probability to Soil and Struct. Engrg., Hong Kong, 129–144.
7.
Ditlevsen, O. (1979). “Narrow reliability bounds for structural systems.” J. Struct. Mech., 7(4), 453–472.
8.
Hasofer, A. M., and Lind, N. (1974). “An exact and invariant first‐order reliability format.” J. Engrg. Mech., ASCE, 100(1), 111–121.
9.
Ireland, H. O. (1954). “Stability analysis of the Congress Street open cut in Chicago.” Geotechnique, London, England, 4(4), 163–168.
10.
Li, K. S., and Lumb, P. (1987). “Probabilistic design of slopes.” Canadian Geotech. J., 24(4), 520–535, Ottawa, Canada.
11.
Peck, R. B., and Reed, W. C. (1954). “Engineering properties of Chicago subsoils.” Bulletin No. 423, Engrg. Experiment Station, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, Ill.
12.
Tang, W. H., Yucemen, M. S., and Ang, A. H.‐S. (1976). “Probability‐based short term design of soil slopes.” Canadian Geotech. J., 13(3), 201–215, Ottawa, Canada.
13.
Vanmarcke, E. H. (1976). “Reliability of earth slopes.” J. Geotech. Engrg. Div., ASCE, 103(11), 1247–1265.
14.
Wu, T. H., and Kraft, L. M. (1970). “Safety analysis of slopes.” J. Soil Mech. and Found. Div., ASCE, 96(2), 609–630.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
Volume 116 • Issue 8 • August 1990
Pages: 1185 - 1189
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 ASCE.
History
Published online: Aug 1, 1990
Published in print: Aug 1990
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.