Engineering‐Econometric Modeling of Energy Demand
Publication: Journal of Energy Engineering
Volume 118, Issue 2
Abstract
Energy‐demand modeling for the needs of energy management relies on two major approaches: (1) The econometric approach; and (2) the engineering, or technoeconomic, approach. The former emphasizes the explanation based on economic behavior and the estimation of the model by statistical methods; the latter is based on a detailed description of energy uses, stressing the importance of the energy efficiency of equipment and the quantification by means of technical and judgmental data. Despite the clear importance of these two approaches for the improvement in reliability and scope of energy‐demand models, research aiming at a synthesis has been rare and timid, if not from a theoretical point of view at least as far as empirical applications are concerned. In this paper we present an econometric model built according to an engineering logic that takes into account the main technical and behavioral mechanisms influencing energy demand. Applied to the modeling of motor‐fuel demand in Switzerland, using time series, this model allowed us to evaluate the effectiveness of the carbon tax proposed by the Swiss Federal Council in reducing car emissions.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Balestra, P., and Nerlove, P. (1966), “Pooling cross‐section and time‐series data in the estimation of a dynamic model: The demand for natural gas.” Econometrica, 34(3), 585–612.
2.
Berndt, E. R., Morrison, C. J., and Watkins, G. C. (1981). “Dynamic models of energy demand: An assessment and comparison.” Modeling and measuring natural resource substitution, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 259–289.
3.
Carlevaro, F., and Spierer, C. (1983). “Dynamic energy demand models with latent equipment.” European Economic Review, 23(2), 161–194.
4.
Carlevaro, F., and Giovannini, B. (1984). “A vintage energy demand model.” Energy and environmental systems, M. H. Hamza, ed., Acta‐Press, Anaheim, Calif., 13–17.
5.
Carlevaro, F. (1988). “Competitive technologies, equipment vintages and the demand for energy.” International commodity market models and policy analysis, O. Güvenen, ed., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
6.
Fisher, F. M., and Kaysen, C. (1962). A study of econometrics: The demand for electricity in the United States, North‐Holland, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
7.
Graf, H. G. (1990). “Ein Szenario der Entwicklung der schweizerischen Volkswirtschaft” (in German). SGZZ, Saint Gall, Switzerland.
8.
Griliches, Z. (1957). “Hybrid corn: An exploration in the economies of technical change.” Econometrica, 25(4), 501–522.
9.
Hartman, R. S. (1979). “Frontiers in energy demand modeling.” Annual review of energy, Annual Reviews, Inc., Palo Alto, Calif., 443–466.
10.
Houthakker, H. S., and Taylor, L. D. (1970). Consumer demand in the United States: analyses and projections. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass.
11.
Lapillonne, B. (1983). “Les diverses méthodes de prévision de la demande d'énergie à moyen et long terme. Introduction aux méthodes technico‐économiques,” (in French). Revue de l'energie, No. 351, Les Editions Techniques et Economiques, Paris, France, 84–89.
12.
Mansfield, E. (1961). “Technical change and the rate of imitations.” Econometrica, 29(4), 741–766.
13.
Paris, S. J., and Houthakker, H. S. (1955). The analysis of family budgets. Cambridge University Press, New York, N.Y.
14.
“Statistique globale Suisse de l'energie 1990” (in French). (1991). Bulletin ASE/UCS, Zurich, Switzerland, (12), 11–68.
15.
Stone, R. (1954a). The measurement of consumers' expenditure and behaviour in the United Kingdom, 1920–1938, volume I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.
16.
Stone, R. (1954b). “Linear expenditure systems and demand analysis: An application to the pattern of British demand,” Economic J., 64(255), 511–527.
17.
Stone, R., and Rowe, D. A. (1957). “The market demand for durable goods.” Econometrica, 25(3), 423–443.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1992 ASCE.
History
Published online: Aug 1, 1992
Published in print: Aug 1992
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.