Probabilistic Capacity Models and Fragility Estimates for Reinforced Concrete Columns based on Experimental Observations
Publication: Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 128, Issue 10
Abstract
A methodology to construct probabilistic capacity models of structural components is developed. Bayesian updating is used to assess the unknown model parameters based on observational data. The approach properly accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The methodology is used to construct univariate and bivariate probabilistic models for deformation and shear capacities of circular reinforced concrete columns subjected to cyclic loads based on a large body of existing experimental observations. The probabilistic capacity models are used to estimate the fragility of structural components. Point and interval estimates of the fragility are formulated that implicitly or explicitly reflect the influence of epistemic uncertainties. As an example, the fragilities of a typical bridge column in terms of maximum deformation and shear demands are estimated.
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Published In
Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 128 • Issue 10 • October 2002
Pages: 1024 - 1038
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 26, 2001
Accepted: Jan 4, 2002
Published online: Sep 13, 2002
Published in print: Oct 2002
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