Solution and Evaluation of Permafrost Thaw-Subsidence Model

In this paper, we develop a numerical solution to equations derived in the first part of this study to simulate the thaw subsidence of an unsaturated frozen soil due to surface heating. Solutions obtained in terms of pore pressure, temperature, degree of unfrozen water content, ice content, and porosity provide the spatial and temporal variations of these quantities in a thawing soil column. A one-dimensional form of governing equations is discretized by employing a Crank-Nicolson finite-difference scheme. These highly nonlinear equations are then solved by an iterative procedure at every time step for predescribed positive surface temperatures that produce thawing. The numerical solutions are obtained for a 1-m silt column. Results show that, above the frozen region, unfrozen water saturation increases due to low hydraulic conductivity, which prevents the melting ice from draining, thus causing accumulation of water above it. It has also been observed that most of the settlement at the surface is due to thaw consolidation rather than settlement due to drainage. The former is completed in seven days of a 12-day simulation period. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the response of the simulation to deviations in the values of certain parameters. It is found that the settlement estimations are very sensitive to the thaw-settlement parameter and phase-composition curve, thus requiring accurate determination of these parameters for a reliable simulation of the thaw-consolidation process.