TECHNICAL PAPERS
Feb 1, 1984

Taylor Expansion of Series System Reliability

Publication: Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 110, Issue 2

Abstract

Series systems with correlated random safety margins distributed according to the normal distribution play an important role in recent developments of methods of structural reliability theory. These methods require calculation of values of n‐dimensional normal distribution functions. The paper points at a surprisingly accurate rule of thumb calculation method based on a modified second order Taylor expansion in terms of the correlation coefficients and with equicorrelation as expansion point. The equieorrelation coefficient to be used in the method is determined such that the first differential of the distribution function vanishes. The modification is simply to omit the coefficient 1/2 on the second differential in the expansion.

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References

1.
Ditlevsen, O., “Narrow Reliability Bounds for Structural Systems,” Journal of Structural Mechanics, Vol. 7, No. 4, Dec., 1979, pp. 435–451.
2.
Ditlevsen, O., “Principle of Normal Tail Approximation,” Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE, Vol. 107, No. EM6, Dec., 1981, pp. 1191–1208.
3.
Ditlevsen, O., “System Reliability Bounding by Conditioning,” Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE, Vol. 108, No. EM5, Oct., 1982, pp. 708–718.
4.
Ditlevsen, O., Uncertainty Modeling, McGraw Hill Book Co., New York, N.Y., 1981.
5.
Hohenbichler, M., and Rackwitz, R., “Non‐normal Dependent Vectors in Structural Safety,” Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE, Vol. 107, No. EM6, Dec., 1981, pp. 1227–1238.
6.
Johnson, N. L., and Kotz, S., Distributions in Statistics: Continuous Multivariate Distributions, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1972.
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Kounias, G. E., “Bounds for the Probability of a Union, with Applications,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 39, No. 6, 1968, pp. 2154–2158.
8.
Rackwitz, R., and Fiessler, B., “Structural Reliability under Combined Random Load Sequences,” Computers & Structures, Vol. 9, 1978, pp. 489–494.
9.
Thoft‐Christensen, P., and Daisgård Sørensen, J., “Reliability of Structural Systems with Correlated Elements,” Applied Mathematical Modelling Vol. 6, No. 3, June, 1982, pp. 171–178.

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Go to Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 110Issue 2February 1984
Pages: 293 - 307

History

Published online: Feb 1, 1984
Published in print: Feb 1984

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Ove Ditlevsen
Prof. of Applied Math. in Civ. Engrg., Danmarks Ingenørakademi, Build. 373, DK 2800 Lyngby, Denmark

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