Modeling Risk of Failure in Nitrification: Simple Model Incorporating Abundance and Diversity
Publication: Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 135, Issue 8
Abstract
A risk based approach to engineering provides a rational way to balance cost against the need to avoid failure. Such an approach has not been systematically incorporated into the design and operation of wastewater treatment plants. This is perhaps because engineers do not have the means to make risk based predictions of performance. We have adapted a classical technique for incorporating risk in engineering predictions to the oxidation of ammonia, the first step in nitrification. The approach incorporated random changes in load, aeration, and kinetic parameters. Two and three species models were used to evaluate the effect of increasing aeration on the risk of failure. Surprisingly, increased aeration did not lead to a monotonically decreasing risk of failure. Intermediate aeration rates typically increased the standard deviation of the effluent ammonia and thus the risk of failure. Reliable performance was predicted when there was a high abundance of one species or a similar abundance of both. These preliminary but encouraging results suggest risk based approaches offer new and important insights into the operation of biological treatment systems.
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Acknowledgments
IDO acknowledges the support of ECOSERV Marie Curie excellence grant. TPC benefited from a Royal Academy of Engineering Global Research Award. The authors are grateful for the stimulating discussions with David Graham, George Wells, Hee Deung Park, and Craig Criddle.
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© 2009 ASCE.
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Received: Oct 25, 2007
Accepted: Jan 20, 2009
Published online: Jul 15, 2009
Published in print: Aug 2009
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