Modeling and Forecasting Construction Labor Demand: Multivariate Analysis
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 134, Issue 9
Abstract
This paper presents the development of advanced labor demand forecasting models at project level. A total of 11 manpower demand forecasting models were developed for the total project labor and ten essential trades. Data were collected from a sample of 54 construction projects. These data were analyzed through a series of multiple linear regression analyses that help establish the estimation models. The results indicate that project labor demand depends not only on a single factor, but a cluster of variables related to the project characteristics, including construction cost, project complexity attributes, physical site condition, and project type. The derived regression models were tested and validated using four out-of-sample projects and various diagnostic tests. It is concluded that the models are robust and reliable, which merit for contractors and HKSAR government to predict the labor required for a new construction project and facilitate human resources planning and budgeting, and that the methodology used may be applied to develop equally useful models in other subsectors, and in other countries.
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Acknowledgments
The writers wish to acknowledge with thanks the help given to them by the HKSAR government officers and interviewees for their generous collaboration and contributions in completing the questionnaires and providing invaluable information for the study. Support from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University is also gratefully acknowledged, in that it has enabled the continuation of this research and the dissemination of these results.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 134 • Issue 9 • September 2008
Pages: 664 - 672
Copyright
© 2008 ASCE.
History
Received: Dec 6, 2006
Accepted: Dec 10, 2007
Published online: Sep 1, 2008
Published in print: Sep 2008
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