Probabilistic Control of Project Performance Using Control Limit Curves
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 133, Issue 12
Abstract
This study introduces a new probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of final project performance, in terms of not exceeding planned budget and schedule risk levels. This concept consists in the implementation of performance control limit curves for both actual cost and elapsed time, obtained with a probabilistic approach and a graphical representation referred to as Stochastic S curves (SS curves). In order to facilitate the project control process, control limit curves can be used to display and evaluate actual project performance status without the need of actualizing at completion performance forecasts. Three different approaches (quality, benchmarking, and incremental variance) are proposed in this paper for obtaining the project performance control limit curves. In order to find the control limit curve definition with more conservative acceptable performance variations, these approaches are tested in an example project. A further managerial advantage is found in the recommended approach, as it allows monitoring the use of both cost and scheduling contingencies, along the project execution.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 133 • Issue 12 • December 2007
Pages: 957 - 965
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Jan 11, 2005
Accepted: May 8, 2007
Published online: Dec 1, 2007
Published in print: Dec 2007
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