Bayesian Updating Application into Simulation in the North Edmonton Sanitary Trunk Tunnel Project
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 132, Issue 8
Abstract
Simulation models are built on assumptions, approximations, and estimates. Repetitive long-term projects such as tunnel construction provide opportunities to finetune approximations based on input from actual project progress. Bayesian updating techniques are an effective approach for improving the quality of simulation input and output based on what has already been observed. This paper presents a case study in which Bayesian techniques were applied to a simulation model of an actual tunnel project, the North Edmonton Sanitary Trunk. The study shows that using Bayesian techniques greatly improves the quality of projections. The novelty of this work includes the enhancement of the application of Bayesian updating techniques, the demonstration of simulation applications with a fully monitored tunneling project, and the demonstration of the extent of improvement to planning predictions from the use of actual data and the Bayesian updating techniques.
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Acknowledgments
This research was funded through the NSERC/Alberta Construction Industry Research Chair in construction Engineering Management. the writers wish to thank Mr. Siri Fernando of the City of Edmonton, Drainage Services for his extensive assistance throughout this study.
References
Ang, A. H-S., and Tang, W. H. (1975). Probability concepts in engineering planning and design, Vol. 1, Wiley, New York.
City of Edmonton, Asset Management and Public Works. (2002). “North Edmonton sanitary trunk (NEST) stage NC1.” Design Rep., Drainage Services Design and Construction, Edmonton, Alta.
Haas, C., and Einstein, H. H. (2002). “Updating the decision aids for tunneling.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 128(1), 40–48.
Hajjar, D., and AbouRizk, S. M. (2002) “Unified modeling methodology for construction simulation.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 128(2), 174–185.
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© 2006 ASCE.
History
Received: Apr 26, 2005
Accepted: Jul 5, 2005
Published online: Aug 1, 2006
Published in print: Aug 2006
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