Describing a Beta Probability Distribution Function for Construction Simulation
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 131, Issue 2
Abstract
A typical proposed application for a construction simulation model is to assess the productivity of a future operation. This type of application inherently presents the modeler with a situation where there is only a limited amount of data available for choosing an underlying probability distribution function (PDF). This paper presents a formulation for developing a Beta PDF for use in construction simulation modeling. The hypothesis of this paper is that there is a ratio that relates the 75th percentile to the mode of the activity duration. The research demonstrates that using such ratios, along with the minimum, mode, and maximum activity durations, results in estimates of a beta PDF that accurately describes the underlying duration distribution of construction activities. In the methodology proposed here the minimum and maximum activity durations are predicted using deterministic methods based on the physical characteristics of the job and equipment employed. The beta-shaped parameters and are estimated using a procedure for fitting beta distributions to activity times when sample data are not available.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 131 • Issue 2 • February 2005
Pages: 221 - 229
Copyright
© 2005 ASCE.
History
Received: Jan 18, 2002
Accepted: Mar 16, 2004
Published online: Feb 1, 2005
Published in print: Feb 2005
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