Grade-Crossing Accident Prediction

This paper reports on a study of the effects of increased coal-train traffic on grade-crossing accidents. The Coleman-Stewart model was used to predict infuries and deaths at grade crossings attributable to hypothetically increased unit-train volume between four specific origin-destination pairs. A model developed by the Florida Department of Transportation was examined as an alternative. For the total hypothetical coal transport of 70.5 million tons (6.39x10¹⁰ kg) per year, increases of about 8 deaths (21%) and 30 injuries (20%) per year were predicted. Such predictions are route-dependent and cannot be extended from one route to another using simple accident rates based upon number of trains per day, tonnage, or ton-mileage.