Stochastic Model for Analysis of Pavement Systems

This paper presents a methodological framework to analyze highway pavements from the standpoint of the levels of service they provide to the users at any time throughout their operational life. The proposed model has a causal structure which relates the physical properties of the pavement system to some physical indicators of distress, such as those suggested by AASHO, through probabilistic transfer functions. The model incorporates elements of uncertainty in the behavior of the system imparted to it by both the statistical nature of the materials characteristics, and the randomness in traffic and environmental conditions. Serviceability, reliability, life expectancy, as well as potential maintenance and cost factors, may be evaluated using this framework to provide a rational basis for evaluation and optimal selection of a design configuration suitable for a given demand and operational characteristics.