The Use of Statistics in Reservoir Operations

Statistics can be very useful in reservoir operations as an assessment of the operational chances involved, particularly with respect to water supply. Operating plans must consider the probaLility of a variation in water supply from that considered to be most likely; in fact, the extreme variations frequently form the controls for a particular operation, rather than the most probable su'pply. The development of annual operating plans for reservoir systems deriving their primary water supply from snowmelt, as well as progressive, seasonal modifications to these plans, is demonstrated herein. Particular emphasis is given to the importance of probability analyses in determining limits for the development of the operational plans.