Human-Centered Approach for Resilience Assessment of Healthcare Networks Subjected to Sequential Earthquakes
Abstract
Healthcare services are critical for community resilience and stability as their role after disastrous events is indispensable to reducing casualties and returning the community to normalcy. Sequential mainshock-aftershock events can damage hospital components, reduce utility availability, and cause multiple patient surges. No studies have been conducted to evaluate the impact of mainshock-aftershock events on healthcare resilience. Accordingly, here we investigate the impact of multiple earthquakes on the healthcare network in Shelby County, Tennessee, and determine the optimal resources needed to enhance its functionality. The functionality is estimated by combining functionality quantity and quality terms. The quantity is calculated based on the number of staffed beds, a function of physical space, staff, and supplies. The quality is based on the waiting time to receive treatment. The analysis starts by simulating the intensities of the mainshock and aftershock events. Following hazard simulation, the impacts of the mainshock on damaging the hospital buildings, the supporting infrastructure, and the associated staff housing are modeled. A semi-Markovian process is then used to model the repair process to update the condition of the physical space over time. A staff-to-hospital connectivity model is utilized to simulate the connection between the residence of each hospital staff and their residence. Additionally, a patient-to-hospital connectivity model is used to simulate the hospitals’ demand. The results show that providing alternatives for hospitals’ staff, space, and supplies during multiple hazards effectively improves healthcare resilience. For the investigated scenario, the optimal use of these alternatives can shorten the recovery time by 38% and increase the resilience of the healthcare system by 8%.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
Funding for this study was in part provided by the cooperative Agreement 70NANB15H044 between the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and Colorado State University. The contents expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions or views of NIST or the US Department of Commerce.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Natural Hazards Review
Volume 25 • Issue 4 • November 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 4, 2023
Accepted: May 28, 2024
Published online: Aug 1, 2024
Published in print: Nov 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Jan 1, 2025
ASCE Technical Topics:
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- Disasters and hazards
- Earthquakes
- Engineering fundamentals
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- Geohazards
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- Health care facilities
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