Social Science Contributions to Earthquake Warnings: Commemorating the Work of Dennis S. Mileti
Abstract
The pioneering work of Dennis Mileti and those with whom he collaborated have established a sound basis in understanding how human beings behave when encountering hazard warnings. His work greatly expanded our understanding of the social environment into which warnings are issued and provided clear guidelines on how warnings should be delivered to optimize behavioral compliance; how warning message content can be construed to motivate protective actions; and why people may fail to comply or delay actions after receipt of a warning. This paper addresses Mileti’s work in earthquake warnings, first in the context of earthquake predictions and later, as optimism waned that accurate earthquake predictions were possible, as his insights were applied to newer approaches in the form of earthquake early warnings and operational earthquake forecasting. This paper will first briefly trace the historical development of approaches to warn of a potentially damaging earthquake because it is important to place Mileti’s work in the historical context in which it was carried out. It then assesses the manner in which the current methods of earthquake warning for short- and intermediate-term time frames via earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting have benefited from Mileti’s very significant observations and insights. His work in evaluating and clarifying the social environment in which warnings are issued is an important and enduring element of his legacy, has significantly influenced how hazard warnings are now formulated, and has greatly shaped the work of those of us who carry on the study of hazard warning systems.
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Data Availability Statement
No data, models, or code were generated or used during the study.
Acknowledgments
The author wishes to thank Professor Hamilton Bean for reviewing an early draft of this paper and for helpful comments in revising it for publication and Dr. Sara McBride for providing a brief description of the Social Science Working Group under the US Geological Survey’s program for Communication, Education, Outreach, and Technical Engagement (CEO&TE). The author also appreciates the reviews provided by three anonymous reviewers appointed by the editors of the Natural Hazards Review.
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Volume 24 • Issue 2 • May 2023
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Published online: Mar 7, 2023
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- Jeannette Sutton, Hamilton Bean, Lori Peek, Erica Kuligowski, Michele Wood, The Legacy of Dennis S. Mileti and the Future of Public Alert and Warning Research, Natural Hazards Review, 10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-2113, 25, 3, (2024).