Research Article
Jul 1981
Predicting Lake Levels by Exponential Smoothing
Publication: Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 107, Issue 7
Abstract
A statistical univariate forecasting technique called Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is used to obtain the estimates of future water levels of a large lake. The characteristics of the time series data consisting of average monthly lake levels is examined, and the parameters of the EWMA model are determined. The ex-post forecasts generated by this model are compared with the actual observations of lake water levels and with results obtained earlier with other stochastic methods. EWMA yields forecasts which are statistically indistinguishable from the actual observations.
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Published In
Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 107 • Issue 7 • July 1981
Pages: 867 - 878
Copyright
© 1981 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Jul 1981
Published online: Feb 3, 2021
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Authors
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Sivajogi D. Koppula, AM.ASCE
Section Head, Design and Construction Div., Alberta Environment, 16403-102 Street Edmonton, Alberta, T5X 2G9, Canada
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.