Research Article
Jul 1980
Bayesian Frequency Analysis
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 106, Issue 7
Abstract
The traditional frequency analysis attempts to fit a specific probability model on the basis of limited data, from which the flood level corresponding to a given return period is determined. Because of: (1) Scatter of observed data about the theoretical probability model; (2) uncertainty of extrapolation from limited measured record; and (3) uncertainty in selecting the correct model, the flood level corresponding to a given return period should be a random variable. Through a Bayesian regression analysis the above uncertainties can be used in evaluating the resulting probability distribution of the flood level. Alternatively, the return period associated with a given flood level may also be treated as a random variable whose distribution can also be evaluated. The model uncertainty may be then incorporated in evaluating hydrologic risk of a system over its expected life time.
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Published In
Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 106 • Issue 7 • July 1980
Pages: 1203 - 1218
Copyright
© 1980 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published in print: Jul 1980
Published online: Feb 3, 2021
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Wilson H. Tang, M.ASCE
Assoc. Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Campaign, Urbana, Ill.
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