Research Article
Oct 1976
Seasonal and Nonseasonal ARMA Models in Hydrology
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 102, Issue 10
Abstract
The ARMA (autoregressive moving average) processes may be fitted to stationarized series obtained by subtraction of the seasonal means and division by the seasonal standard deviations. This standardization is effective in removing the cyclicities in the means and in the variances, but the ensemble cross-correlations are virtually unchanged. A modified family of ARMA models is presented in which the seasonality of the means, the variances, and the cross-variances are preserved. The model has seasonally varying coefficients based upon seasonally varying serial correlation coefficients. To further preserve the characteristics of the historical series, the probability distribution of the random numbers used for data generation should be similar to those of the residuals of the stochastic model. The ARMA models have been applied to 20 daily, weekly, and monthly runoff series for watersheds in the lower Ohio Basin.
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Published In
Journal of the Hydraulics Division
Volume 102 • Issue 10 • October 1976
Pages: 1541 - 1559
Copyright
© 1976 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Oct 1976
Published online: Feb 3, 2021
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Authors
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Pen-Chih Tao, AM.ASCE
Special Projects Engr., Hackensack Water Co., Weehawken, N.J.; formerly, Visiting Asst. Prof., School of Civ. Engrg., Purdue Univ., Lafayette, Ind.
Jacques W. Delleur, M.ASCE
Prof. of Hydr. Engrg., School of Civ. Engrg., Purdue Univ., Lafayette, Ind.
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.