Flood Proofing in a Flood Plain: A Stochastic Model

A mathematical model of an urban flood plain incorporates a statistical description of flood proofing measures. Measures that are either permanent or dynamic, i.e., contingent and dependent on the flood warning time, are considered. Dynamic flood proofing is treated by a probabilistic approach which accounts for the various uncertainties associated with the diffusion and implementation of flood warnings. The expected value and standard deviation of damage to the entire flood plain reach are expressed in terms of a flood proofing index, which indicates the extent of dynamic flood proofing in the flood plain. The influence of the flood proofing index on the flood damage statistics is studied by means of a hypothetical numerical example.