Optimized Coordination of Urban Water Usage in China’s Minjiang River Basin under the Influence of Climate Change
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 150, Issue 10
Abstract
This study investigated the current and potential future impact of climate change on water resources in the Minjiang River Basin, Fujian Province, China. Coupling a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) model and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and considering the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, we found a notable upward trend (2.9%, 7.5%, and 12.3% increase, respectively) in multiyear average runoff. A system dynamics feedback model was applied to optimize water resource allocation for Fuzhou, Sanming, and Nanping cities in the Minjiang River Basin, considering the runoff predicted by the SWAT model under climate change. The prediction results show that industrial water use steadily decreases, whereas water consumption in the tertiary sector increases concurrently. By 2050, water allocation schemes have reached the level of moderately developed countries, with these schemes taking into consideration the constraints imposed by red lines for water usage upper limit in China. These findings provide insights into the current and potential challenges posed by climate change, and can guide effective water resource planning for Minjiang River Basin cities.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the generous support provided by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41801219), the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province, China (No. 2019J01849), and the Natural Science Foundation of Xiamen, China (No. 3502Z202373064).
Author contributions: Zixuan Kong: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Writing–original draft. Jiping Wang: Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Formal analysis, Investigation, Writing–review and editing. Qiaoyu Li: Project administration. Han Zhang: Formal analysis, Visualization. Zhou Yi: Investigation.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 150 • Issue 10 • October 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 26, 2023
Accepted: Apr 12, 2024
Published online: Aug 2, 2024
Published in print: Oct 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Jan 2, 2025
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Basins
- Bodies of water (by type)
- Business management
- Climate change
- Climates
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Decision making
- Decision support systems
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Hydrologic models
- Models (by type)
- Practice and Profession
- Project management
- Resource allocation
- River engineering
- Rivers and streams
- Water and water resources
- Water management
- Water policy
- Water resources
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