Research Article
Mar 1982
Investigation of Daily Flow Forecasting Models
Publication: Journal of the Water Resources Planning and Management Division
Volume 108, Issue 1
Abstract
Two types of models for forecasting daily flows from a basin are investigated. These model types are a segmented model whose components are multi-input linear models of the basin between gaging stations, and an unsegmented or fully lumped stochastic basin model of the ARMA (p,q) family. Three approaches to segmented model construction are investigated. The results show that a constrained linear systems estimation method gave models which produced forecasts with a smaller bias than the ordinary least-squares method. The addition of an error model further improved the forecasting performance of the segmented models. A fully lumped stochastic model of the basin is developed and its forecasts are compared with those given by the segmented models. The results show that the segmented models provide better forecasts but exhibited more bias when compared to the unsegmented model of the basin. The results are obtained by using the data from the Green River Basin in Kentucky.
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Published In
Journal of the Water Resources Planning and Management Division
Volume 108 • Issue 1 • March 1982
Pages: 67 - 85
Copyright
© 1982 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published in print: Mar 1982
Published online: Feb 12, 2021
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Authors
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Hasan Yazicigil
Asst. Prof., Dept. of Geology, Southern Illinois Univ., Carbondale, Ill
A. Ramachandra Rao, M.ASCE
Prof., School of Civ. Engrg., Purdue Univ., W. Lafayette, Ind
G.H. Toebes, M.ASCE
Prof., School of Civ. Engrg., Purdue Univ., W. Lafayette, Ind
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.