Research Article
Mar 1980
Design of Length of Water Resource Simulation Experiments
Publication: Journal of the Water Resources Planning and Management Division
Volume 106, Issue 1
Abstract
The research procedure was to: (1)Explore the experimental nature of simulation; (2)outline criteria for making sampling decisions about the length of simulation experiments; and (3)develop test statistics for ranking alternative system designs. Lengths of simulation runs required to achieve desired levels of reliability are shown to depend on serial and cross-covariance properties of simulated net benefit time series. Application of the procedures suggested by this study to a set of simulations of alternative plans for the Rio Colorado, Argentina, shows that the longest runs are required for alternatives with largest variance of annual net benefits. Serial correlation tends to increase required run length whereas cross-correlation tends to reduce required run length. In need of further work are: procedures to rank many alternatives having correlated net benefit series; procedures for nonstationary series; procedures to deal with non-normal benefit series; and procedures to account for the consequences of making incorrect choices.
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Published In
Journal of the Water Resources Planning and Management Division
Volume 106 • Issue 1 • March 1980
Pages: 333 - 350
Copyright
© 1980 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Mar 1980
Published online: Feb 12, 2021
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Authors
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Guillermo J. Vicens, M.ASCE
Assoc., CDS/Resource Analysis, Waltham, Mass
John C. Schaake Jr., M.ASCE
Dir., Hydrologic Services Div., Office of Hydrology, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, Silver Spring, Md
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.