Flood Damage Reduction Potential of River Forecast

An analytical method consisting of a set of hydrologic and economic models is presented for estimating expected flood damage reduction due to simulation of flood plain actions in a river basin. The method is based on the interrelationship of the hydraulic and hydrologic features of the flood plain, physical and economic data on flood-plain structures and their contents. Synthetic stage damage curves for individual residential and commercial structures reduces the need for field data. The method was demonstrated in the Connecticut River Basin where many complex urban flood damage centers exist on the main stem as well as on the tributaries. The analysis and interpretation of the results provided an estimate of the potential value of flood warnings in a basin where a river forecast system coupled with an effective citizen response can be one of the most cost-effective alternatives.