Probabilistic Tsunami Damage Assessment for Structural Mitigation Policy Guidance
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 149, Issue 5
Abstract
Some areas of the California coast have physical conditions—such as local bathymetry, topography, shoreline orientation, and other factors—that increase the risk for damage from tsunami inundation compared with other regions. Technical tsunami hazard analyses can inform decision-makers on regional planning and policy decisions. In this paper, we focus on recent efforts in California to delineate various tsunami hazard zones along the coastline under the Seismic Hazard Mapping Act, wherein structural mitigation measures will be recommended. To define the zone wherein structural mitigation measures are recommended, we present a state-wide tsunami reliability analysis that combines existing probabilistic hazard information and structure fragility curves derived from recent events. We examine design-life chances of significant structural damage for various structure types along all developed coastlines throughout California and use this analysis to show how hazard and risk have different correlations throughout the State. Finally, we outline an approach for creating mitigation zones, which provides state-wide tsunami risk consistency for all structures in the tsunami inundation zone.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors at the University of Southern California (USC) were supported by US NSF grants CMMI-1661052 and OCE-1830056. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
References
Ahmad, N., A. Shahzad, Q. Ali, M. Rizwan, and A. N. Khan. 2018. “Seismic fragility functions for code compliant and non-compliant RC SMRF structures in Pakistan.” Bull. Earthquake Eng. 16 (10): 4675–4703. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0377-x.
ASCE. 2016. Minimum design loads for buildings and other structures. ASCE/SEI 7-16. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Attary, N., J. W. van de Lindt, V. U. Unnikrishnan, A. R. Barbosa, and D. T. Cox. 2017. “Methodology for development of physics-based tsunami fragilities.” J. Struct. Eng. 143 (5): 04016223. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001715.
Charvet, I., A. Supparsi, H. Kimura, D. Sugawara, and F. Imamura. 2015. “A multivariate generalized linear tsunami fragility model for Kesennuma City based on maximum flow depths, velocities and debris impact, with evaluation of predictive accuracy.” Nat. Hazard. 79 (3): 2073–2099. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1947-8.
Chock, G., G. Yu, H. K. Thio, and P. J. Lynett. 2016. “Target structural reliability analysis for tsunami hydrodynamic loads of the ASCE 7 standard.” J. Struct. Eng. 142 (11): 04016092. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001499.
Eguchi, R. T., M. T. Eguchi, J. Bouabid, S. Koshimura, F. Yamazaki, and W. P. Graf. 2014. “Benchmarking, validation and calibration of newly-developed HAZUS tsunami methodology.” In Proc., 10th US National Conf. on Earthquake Engineering: Frontiers of Earthquake Engineering. Oakland, CA: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI).
Graehl, N. A., J. R. Patton, J. Bott, R. Wilson, Y. LaDuke, and K. Miller. 2019. “State of California’s Update to the Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning.” American Geophysical Union Presentation NH43D-0973. Accessed June 1, 2022. https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/Documents/Tsunami/Tsunami-inundation-map-methodology-2019.pdf.
Jin, S., C. Homer, L. Yang, P. Danielson, J. Dewitz, C. Li, Z. Zhu, G. Xian, and D. Howard. 2019. “Overall methodology design for the United States national land cover database 2016 products.” Remote Sens. 11 (24): 2971. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11242971.
Kennedy, A., et al. 2020. “Hurricane Michael in the area of Mexico Beach, Florida.” J. Waterw. Port Coast. Ocean Eng. 146 (5): 05020004. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000590.
Koshimura, S., Y. Namegaya, and H. Yanagisawa. 2009. “Tsunami fragility—A new measure to identify tsunami damage.” J. Disaster Res. 4 (6): 479–488. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2009.p0479.
Lynett, P., H. K. Thio, M. Scott, T. Murphy, T. Shantz, and J. D. Shen. 2021. Validation of tsunami design guidelines for coastal bridges. No. FHWA-OR-RD-21-09. Salem, OR: Oregon Dept. of Transportation. Research Section.
Melby, J. A., T. C. Massey, A. L. Stehno, N. C. Nadal-Caraballo, S. Misra, and V. M. Gonzalez. 2021. Sabine Pass to Galveston Bay, TX Pre-construction, Engineering and Design (PED): Coastal storm surge and wave hazard assessment: Report 1—Background and approach. Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory.
Real, C. R., and R. E. Yoha. 1991. “California’s new seismic hazards mapping act: Implications for technology and policy.” In Applications of Urban and Regional Information Systems to Hazard and Disaster Mitigation, Emergency Management, and Other Public Safety Topics: Excerpts, 197–210. Des Plaines, IL: Urban and Regional Information Systems Association (URISA).
Suppasri, A., S. Koshimura, and F. Imamura. 2011. “Developing tsunami fragility curves based on the satellite remote sensing and the numerical modeling of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Thailand.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11 (1): 173–189. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-173-2011.
Suppasri, A., E. Mas, I. Charvet, R. Gunasekera, K. Imai, Y. Fukutani, Y. Abe, and F. Imamura. 2013. “Building damage characteristics based on surveyed data and fragility curves of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami.” Nat. Hazard. 66 (2): 319–341. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0487-8.
Thio, H. K., P. Somerville, and G. Ichinose. 2007. “Probabilistic analysis of strong ground motion and tsunami hazards in Southeast Asia.” J. Earthquake Tsunami 1 (2): 119–137. https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793431107000080.
Thio, H., P. Somerville, and J. Polet. 2010. Probabilistic tsunami hazard in California. Publication No. 2010/108. Berkeley, CA: Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center.
Thio, H., Y. Wei, G. Chock, and W. Li. 2017. “Development of offshore probabilistic tsunami exceedance amplitudes for ASCE 7-16.” In Proc., 16th World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering. Santiago, Chile: International Association for Earthquake Engineering.
Thio, H. K. 2019. Probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for the State of California (Phase 2). AECOM report to CGS. Sacramento, CA: California Geological Survey.
USGS. 2019. NLCD 2016 land cover conterminous United States. Washington, DC: USGS.
Wilson, R. I., A. Barberopoulou, K. M. Miller, J. D. Goltz, and C. E. Synolakis. 2008. “New maximum tsunami inundation maps for use by local emergency planners in the State of California, USA.” EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 89 (53): Fall Meeting Supplement, Abstract OS43D-1343.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 149 • Issue 5 • September 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 24, 2022
Accepted: May 1, 2023
Published online: Jul 13, 2023
Published in print: Sep 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Dec 13, 2023
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.