Research Article
May 1975
Delphic Predictions and Cross Impact Simulation
Authors: Jarir S. Dajani, M.ASCE, and Gorman GilbertAuthor Affiliations
Publication: Journal of the Urban Planning and Development Division
Volume 101, Issue 1
Abstract
The writers review two techniques that are potentially useful tools in urban and regional planning. These techniques are the Delphi method for obtaining subjective predictions about a changing future through a panel of experts and Cross-Impact Simulation for combining a number of discrete subjective forecast with a number of similar related forecasts to produce alternative descriptions of the future. The potential of this class of techniques for planners and engineers who are involved in managing the future is pointed out. The use of the techniques is specifically relevent to situations where subjective judgments have to be made about complex interrelated events. The paper presents mathematical examples of the utilization of these two complimentary methods.
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Published In
Journal of the Urban Planning and Development Division
Volume 101 • Issue 1 • May 1975
Pages: 49 - 59
Copyright
© 1975 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: May 1975
Published online: Feb 12, 2021
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Authors
Affiliations
Jarir S. Dajani, M.ASCE
Asst. Prof. of Civ. Engrg. and Policy Scis., Duke Univ., Durham, N.C.
Gorman Gilbert
Asst. Prof., Dept. of City and Regional Planning, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C.
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.