Percolation-Based Resilience Modeling and Active Intervention of Disrupted Urban Traffic Network during a Snowstorm
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 149, Issue 5
Abstract
Road networks are the backbones of urban communities and can be vulnerable to many disruptions caused by natural hazards, crashes, and rush hours, etc. Numerous efforts have been made in recent years to building more resilient urban road traffic systems against various disruptions through an improved understanding of resilience performance and more effective traffic intervention. A new resilience modeling methodology has been developed for disrupted traffic systems under natural hazards in terms of both local traffic performance and percolation-based robustness at the network scale. Hybrid data enhancement is conducted by integrating limited real-world data and microscopic traffic simulation to address the common challenge of data scarcity under hazards. The study further investigates the feasibility of applying early active traffic intervention through traffic signal design optimization only at some strategic intersections to improve both the traffic performance and resilience at local and network scales. A case study of the City of Fort Collins during snowstorms is made to demonstrate the methodology. The contributions of this study are reflected by shedding light on the following critical, yet unanswered questions: (1) how to deal with the common data shortage of disrupted traffic systems under hazards, (2) how to provide comprehensive time-progressive resilience assessment of a disrupted traffic system at different spatial scales, and (3) is it feasible to apply traffic intervention, such as smart intersection traffic control, only at limited intersections during hazards to improve both system resilience and traffic performance.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Intersection modeling info and traffic data are from the City of Fort Collins (https://www.fcgov.com/traffic/traffic-count-disclaimer). Snowfall data are from the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University (CSU) (https://climate.colostate.edu/data_access.html). SUMO is an open-source traffic simulation software which is free to access from: https://sumo.dlr.de/docs/index.html. OSMnx is an open-source Python package that can be accessed through https://github.com/gboeing/osmnx. Some or all data, models, or code used during the study were provided by a third party. Direct requests for these materials may be made to the provider as indicated in the Acknowledgements.
Acknowledgments
The work presented in this paper was conducted with support from the Mountain-Plains Consortium, a University Transportation Center funded by the US Department of Transportation. The contents of this paper reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and accuracy of the information presented. The authors would also like to acknowledge the traffic operation division of City of Fort Collins for providing the traffic data used in this study.
References
Abdulla, B., and B. Birgisson. 2021. “Characterization of vulnerability of road networks to random and nonrandom disruptions using network percolation approach.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng. 35 (1): 04020054. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000938.
Akçelik, R. 1995. Extension of the highway capacity manual progression factor method for platooned arrivals. Vermont South, VIC, Australia: Australian Road Research Board.
Akçelik, R., and N. M. Rouphail. 1994. “Overflow queues and delays with random and platooned arrivals at signalized intersections.” J. Adv. Transp. 28 (3): 227–251. https://doi.org/10.1002/atr.5670280305.
Berdica, K. 2002. “An introduction to road vulnerability: What has been done, is done and should be done.” Transp. Policy 9 (2): 117–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-070X(02)00011-2.
Boeing, G. 2017. “OSMnx: New methods for acquiring, constructing, analyzing, and visualizing complex street networks.” Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 65 (Sep): 126–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2017.05.004.
Bruneau, M., et al. 2003. “A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities.” Earthquake Spectra 19 (4): 733–752. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1623497.
Callaway, D. S., M. E. Newman, S. H. Strogatz, and D. J. Watts. 2000. “Network robustness and fragility: Percolation on random graphs.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 85 (25): 5468. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.85.5468.
Chang, T., and J. Lin. 2000. “Optimal signal timing for an oversaturated intersection.” Transp. Res. Part B Methodol. 34 (6): 471–491. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-2615(99)00034-X.
Chen, H., R. Zhou, H. Chen, and A. Lau. 2022. “A resilience-oriented evaluation and identification of critical thresholds for traffic congestion diffusion.” Physica A 600 (Aug): 127592. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127592.
City of Fort Collins. 2009. “2010 signal timing report.” City of Fort Collins Traffic Operations. Accessed November 13, 2021. https://www.fcgov.com/traffic/signals.php.
City of Fort Collins. 2018. “Average daily traffic volumes.” City of Fort Collins Traffic Engineering. Accessed November 11, 2021. https://www.fcgov.com/traffic/traffic-count-disclaimer.
Cowan, R. 1978. “An improved model for signalised intersections with vehicle-actuated control.” J. Appl. Probab. 15 (2): 384–396. https://doi.org/10.2307/3213409.
CSU (Colorado State University). 2020. “Access Colorado data.” Accessed January 3, 2023. https://climate.colostate.edu/data_access.html.
De Oliveira, E. L., L. Da Silva Portugal, and W. P. Junior. 2014. “Determining critical links in a road network: Vulnerability and congestion indicators.” Procedia-Social Behav. Sci. 162 (Dec): 158–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.12.196.
Dong, S., A. Mostafizi, H. Wang, J. Gao, and X. Li. 2020. “Measuring the topological robustness of transportation networks to disaster-induced failures: A percolation approach.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 26 (2): 04020009. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000533.
Ganin, A., M. Kitsak, D. Marchese, J. Keisler, T. Seager, and I. Linkov. 2017. “Resilience and efficiency in transportation networks.” Sci. Adv. 3 (12): e1701079. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1701079.
Ganin, A., A. Mersky, A. Jin, M. Kitsak, J. Keisler, and I. Linkov. 2019. “Resilience in intelligent transportation systems (ITS).” Transp. Res. Part C: Emerging Technol. 100 (Mar): 318–329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2019.01.014.
Gao, J., B. Barzel, and A. Barabási. 2016. “Universal resilience patterns in complex networks.” Nature 530 (7590): 307. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16948.
Gao, J., S. V. Buldyrev, S. Havlin, and H. E. Stanley. 2011. “Robustness of a network of networks.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 107 (19): 195701. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.107.195701.
Hamedmoghadam, H., M. Jalili, H. Vu, and L. Stone. 2021. “Percolation of heterogeneous flows uncovers the bottlenecks of infrastructure networks.” Nat. Commun. 12 (1): 1254. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21483-y.
Heaslip, K., W. Louisell, and J. Collura. 2009. “A methodology to evaluate transportation resiliency for regional networks.” In Proc., Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting Conf. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board.
Holme, P., B. J. Kim, C. N. Yoon, and S. K. Han. 2002. “Attack vulnerability of complex networks.” Phys. Rev. E 65 (5): 056109. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.65.056109.
Hou, G., and S. Chen. 2020. “Study of work zone traffic safety under adverse driving conditions with a microscopic traffic simulation approach.” Accid. Anal. Prev. 145 (Sep): 105698. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105698.
Hou, G., S. Chen, and Y. Han. 2019. “Traffic performance assessment methodology of degraded roadway links following hazards.” J. Aerosp. Eng. 32 (5): 04019055. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)AS.1943-5525.0001050.
Huang, X., J. Gao, S. V. Buldyrev, S. Havlin, and H. E. Stanley. 2011. “Robustness of interdependent networks under targeted attack.” Phys. Rev. E 83 (6): 065101. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.83.065101.
Iyer, S., T. Killingback, B. Sundaram, and Z. Wang. 2013. “Attack robustness and centrality of complex networks.” PLoS One 8 (4): e59613. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0059613.
Lem, P. 2016. “Can cities be sustainable?—Urban growth poses big challenges in the 21st century.” Accessed May 11, 2016. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-cities-be-sustainable/.
Li, D., B. Y. Y. FuWangWang, Y. Wang, G. Lu, Y. Zerezin, E. Stanley, and S. Havlin. 2015. “Percolation transition in dynamical traffic network with evolving critical bottlenecks.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 112 (3): 669–672. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1419185112.
Li, M., R. Liu, L. Lu, M. Hu, S. Xu, and Y. Zhang. 2021. “Percolation on complex networks: Theory and application.” Phys. Rep. 907 (Apr): 1–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2020.12.003.
Miller-Hooks, E., X. Zhang, and R. Faturechi. 2012. “Measuring and maximizing resilience of freight transportation networks.” Comput. Oper. Res. 39 (7): 1633–1643. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cor.2011.09.017.
Newman, M. 2010. Networks: An introduction. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Newman, M. 2018. Networks. 2nd ed. New York: Oxford University Press.
Ouyang, M., and Z. Wang. 2015. “Resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems: With a focus on joint restoration modeling and analysis.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 141 (Sep): 74–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.03.011.
Reggiani, A. 2013. “Network resilience for transport security: Some methodological consideration.” Transport Policy 28 (Jul): 63–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.09.007.
Ruan, Z., C. Song, X.-H. Yang, G. Shen, and Z. Liu. 2019. “Empirical analysis of urban road traffic network: A case study in Hangzhou City, China.” Physica A 527 (Aug): 121287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.121287.
Sheikh, M. S., J. Liang, and W. Wang. 2020. “An improved automatic traffic incident detection technique using a vehicle to infrastructure communication.” J. Adv. Transp. 2020: 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/9139074.
Sheikh, M. S., J. Wang, and A. Regan. 2021. “A game theory-based controller approach for identifying incidents caused by aberrant lane changing behavior.” Phys. A Stat. Mech. Appl. 580: 126162.
Taylor, M. A. 2008. “Critical transport infrastructure in urban areas: Impacts of traffic incidents assessed using accessibility-based network vulnerability analysis.” Growth Change 39 (4): 593–616. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2257.2008.00448.x.
Wilf, H. S. 2013. Generating functionology. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.
Yao, K., and S. Chen. 2022. “Resilience-based adaptive traffic signal strategy against disruption at single intersection.” J. Transp. Eng. Part A: Syst. 148 (5): 04022018. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.0000671.
Zeng, G., D. Li, S. Guo, L. Gao, Z. Gao, E. Stanley, and S. Havlin. 2019. “Switch between critical percolation modes in city traffic dynamics.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 116 (1): 23–28. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1801545116.
Zhou, Y., J. Wang, and J. Sheu. 2019. “On connectivity of post-earthquake road networks.” Transp. Res. Part E: Logist. Transp. Rev. 123 (Mar): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2019.01.009.
Zou, Q., and S. Chen. 2020. “Resilience modeling of interdependent traffic-electric power system subject to hurricanes.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 26 (1): 04019034. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000524.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 149 • Issue 5 • May 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 3, 2022
Accepted: Jan 4, 2023
Published online: Feb 25, 2023
Published in print: May 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Jul 25, 2023
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Nazanin Zare, Elżbieta Macioszek, Anna Granà, Tullio Giuffrè, Blending Efficiency and Resilience in the Performance Assessment of Urban Intersections: A Novel Heuristic Informed by Literature Review, Sustainability, 10.3390/su16062450, 16, 6, (2450), (2024).
- Ying Lu, Peizhen Gong, Integrating GIS Community Resilience Assessment: Multidisaster Perspective, ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1220, 10, 2, (2024).
- Zexi Chen, Kailiang Song, Zhenwu Shen, Daiquan Xiao, Xuecai Xu, A Review of Resilient Transportation Systems in the Last Five Years, 2023 7th International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS), 10.1109/ICTIS60134.2023.10243879, (521-529), (2023).