Simultaneous Prediction of Midblock and Intersection Traffic States on Urban Arterials
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 148, Issue 10
Abstract
Reliable, real-time prediction of delay and density is challenging as direct measurement of these variables is difficult. Though studies yielding reasonably accurate predictions of delay and density are reported in the literature, a comprehensive methodology to simultaneously predict both delay and density is lacking. Hence, a recursive technique that uses minimal real-time data for dynamic simultaneous prediction of midblock density and intersection delay is proposed. This study uses conservation equation-based recursive prediction of the number of vehicles inside the midblock section (density), which in turn is used to predict delay using shockwave theory. The Kalman Filter is a one-step-ahead density prediction method that can yield reliable density predictions even under the presence of errors in detector data. The one-step-ahead delay predictions obtained had a Mean Absolute Percentile Error (MAPE) of 10.4%, whereas the one-step-ahead density predictions obtained had a MAPE of 9.96%. Due to its robustness, this method can be used to arrive at one-step-ahead predictions of parameters like delay and queue length for any traffic scenario for which shockwave diagrams can be produced.
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Data Availability Statement
The authors confirm that the data supporting the findings of this study which are not available within the article are available upon reasonable request from the corresponding author.
Acknowledgments
The second author acknowledges funding by the Ministry of Information Technology, Government of India, through Project No. CE/19-20/331/MEIT/008253. The authors would also like to acknowledge “The QUT-IITM Joint Degree MoU” which facilitated this collaborative research between the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras and the Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane.
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Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 148 • Issue 10 • October 2022
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© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Dec 29, 2021
Accepted: May 13, 2022
Published online: Jul 20, 2022
Published in print: Oct 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Dec 20, 2022
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